Monday, October 28, 2019

Snowden

In the last week or so I have told several people that I was reading the "Snowden book" or that I was going to write a blog post about "Snowden".  Many people's response surprised me.  They asked me "who is Snowden?"  Edward "Ed" Snowden was a big fucking deal for several months about six years ago.  On many days he dominated the news.  There was intense interest in who he was, where he was, what he was up to, what he had done and why.

But in a pattern that has unfortunately become all too common, any legitimately newsworthy thing, and Snowden was definitely legitimately newsworthy, fades to the point where few people remember anything about it in an astoundingly short period of time.  He has written a book called "Permanent Record".  It was published recently and I finished reading it a few days ago.  The title is anodyne enough that it does not telegraph to most people why he was a big deal so let me explain.

Snowden spent several years as a contract employee working for various parts of the US intelligence community, what he short hands to the IC.  He also spent several relatively short stints as a direct employee of the Federal Government.  Most of the time he was directly employed by the Federal Government he worked for the CIA.  In all cases he was a computer guy.

Toward the end of his period of employment he collected a large number of top secret documents.  He did this in a way that did not alert anyone that anything was amiss.  He was also able to smuggle these documents out of the high security facility he worked in without being caught.  He was then able to leave the country after contacting various members of the press, again without alerting anyone that anything was amiss,  Finally, he turned the documentation over to the press who promptly started writing and publishing stories based on the contents of these documents.

He saw himself as a whistleblower who was performing a necessary public service.  Others had a far less flattering opinion of him.  He was promptly charged with espionage and related crimes.  For complicated reasons he ended up stuck in Moscow, although he has steadfastly contended that he has in no way cooperated with the Russians and had no classified information with him when he ended up there.  Needless to say, the fact that he ended up in Moscow, where he still lives, added to the sensationalism.  And that led to even more saturation press coverage of him at the time.

So who is Snowden, what did he do, and why did he do it?  He wrote the book to answer those kinds of questions.  As to the "who", he was born in North Carolina in 1983 to a military family.  Although he was and is very smart, he was a poor student who initially did not want to follow in the family tradition.  But then 9/11 happened.  That caused him to reverse course and join the Army aiming to become part of an elite unit.  An accident during training resulted in a medical discharge that put an end to that plan.

He slightly altered his trajectory.  He still wanted to be of service to the government but figured he was better suited to doing computer things in the IC.  That's not as easy as you might think to do.  But he figured out how to do it and once he got a foot in the door he was very successful almost from the start.

He had demonstrated a high level of computer ability from an early age.  That turns out to be an area of expertise that was and still is highly valued within the IC.  He ended up doing what I call "system administration" work, something he was very good at and a specialty that was in continuous short supply.  (He goes into great detail about subspecialties and draws distinctions that, while they are meaningful to him and to me, add needless complexity so I am going to ignore them.)

Broadly, system administration involves the construction and maintenance of computers, computer systems, and the networks that tie them all together.  The system administrator's job is to tie it all together and to make the result perform effectively as an integrated unit.  It is up to others to figure out how to make what the system administrator creates and keeps running do useful work.

He was not a "programmer".  Programing work is more task specific.  They make the pieces that make this computer or system or network do a specific thing.  But frankly there is a lot of overlap between what programmers do and what system administrators do.

Snowden, for instance, could write programs but didn't consider himself that good at it and it did not interest him.  But there is a programmer-like activity that he was very good at.  He could write "scripts".  These, in turn, allowed him to automate a lot of the routine tasks system administrators needed to perform to keep the computers, computer systems, and networks, running smoothly.  Writing programs and writing scripts are very similar activities.  I know.  I've done both.

The difference between programming and system administration has more to do with outlook than the nuts and bolts of the job.  A programmer's typical concern is with all the details necessary to perform a very specific activity that is typically a small part of a much larger process.  System administration is much more "big picture" in its outlook.  What's the main goal?  It turns out that the skills are nearly identical.  It is only the outlook, and to some extent the tools, that change.

In reading the book I saw a lot of myself in Snowden.  I saw him as a kindred soul.  But there are differences.  I was born in 1947, roughly 35 years before he was.  To state the obvious, it was a different time.  I wrote my first computer program as a freshman in college.  He was six years old when he wrote his.

He grew up surrounded by people who worked for the government.  I didn't.  He felt much more constrained by his environment.  I was comfortable with the environment that I grew up in.  His parents divorced while he was growing up.  Mine didn't.  He felt a need to "hack" the system.  For the most part I just wanted to make the system work better and more efficiently.

Then there is the broader environment we came of age in.  I grew up during the Vietnam era.  This caused me to think carefully about things like right and wrong and what the moral thing to do is.  Just the tenor of the times led me to be far more skeptical of institutions including the government.

He grew up during the "safe" '90s and in a military family.  He got his sense of right and wrong from his family.  And his environment bred a high degree of trust and acceptance of the government, its leaders, and its policies.  Military people don't make policy.  They implement policies made by others, whatever those policies may be.

In that environment being apolitical is appropriate behavior.  That is, until 9/11 happened.  At that point he had no experience or expertise with which to form a judgement independent of that of the government.  The government said "we are the good guys, they are the bad guys, and they have done a bad thing to us for no good reason".  The only appropriate response he could think of was to join the army so he could take the fight to the bad guys.  So he did.  My thinking on the subject was much more nuanced so it led me in a different direction.

One thing we shared, however, was a belief that if you sign up to do a job you should do your best to do it well.  We take our responsibilities seriously and we resent others who have a more cavalier attitude toward theirs.  We also expect our supervisors to also take their responsibilities seriously.  And part of a supervisor's responsibilities should be a concern for when things are and are not being done right.

If a subordinate finds something that looks wrong he or she should report it to his or her supervisor.  That supervisor should take the report seriously and, in normal circumstances, undertake an investigation.  But once sufficient proof has been developed and verified that a problem exists then the supervisor has a duty to move to get the problem fixed or to explain why things should remain the same (the abnormal circumstance).  Doing nothing is NOT an option.

Both of us kept score.  If problems were not handled appropriately, we took note.  And we looked for patterns.  At least initially Snowden was naïve.  He expected supervisors to do their jobs.  He was surprised when people up the chain of command did not respond appropriately.  They were much more "don't rock the boat" than "let's go ahead and fix the problem".  With a cynicism born of Vietnam, I was equally disappointed but less surprised and more careful when management fell down on the job, than he was.

There is another important way we are different.  John Le Carre, the great spy novelist, was a part of the British Intelligence Community before he turned to writing novels for a living.  There he came to the conclusion that con men make the best spies.  Spies need to be expert liars and manipulators of people, for instance.

He addressed the subject at length in fictional form in one of his books, "A Perfect Spy".  He has said that it is the most autobiographical of his spy novels.  In it we find that Pym, the protagonist, is the son of a con man.  And a lot of the skills that made him successful as a spy were things he learned at his father's knee when he was a child.  Both Le Carre and I believe this carries over to the real world of spying.  Con men and spies use the same skills.

I would make a terrible spy.  I can't lie worth shit.  I am terrible at reading other people.  And I make a horrible con man.  Snowden, on the other hand, is proud of the scam he pulled off as a six year old.  He also relates various schemes and scams he employed to get out of school work and otherwise "game the system".  This is a skill he takes pride in.

There is a hacker technique called "social engineering".  It consists of conning people into doing things for you that they shouldn't and with them letting you do things you are not normally allowed to do.  Here's a simple example from a past era.  A hacker would call a telephone operator and behave like a telephone company repair man.  If the ruse worked then the operator would let the hacker perform "systems" functions that, for instance, bypassed the billing system.

Successful spies are good at social engineering.  Snowden was good at social engineering.  I am not.  That's enough of that.  Let's get back to the book.

As reported above, Snowden went to work for the IC.  This is harder to do than you would think but he was a better researcher than I am and he figured out the process.  He then proceeded to game it (in a good way) to both get into the system and also to end up where he wanted to end up.  At this point he still felt bad about not having gotten in the fight as a soldier as a result of his boot came injury.  So he wanted to be at "the pointy end of the spear" when it came to postings.  He wanted to do field work in dangerous places.

But his plan backfired.  The managers he had so successfully impressed chose to put him into a cushy position in Switzerland instead, not exactly a hardship post where they are shooting at you.  But he prospered.  He is a very good systems engineer and he developed and implemented various significant improvements to the computer infrastructure that is now ubiquitous in intelligence and pretty much everywhere else.  His bosses continued to like him and his work (more good social engineering) and he was flagged as a rising star.  Another thing he leaned was that contracting was the way to go.

For various stupid reasons the Federal government has shifted away from work being done by government employees and toward work being done by contractors, people working for firms that are hired by agencies to do the actual work.

A cynic (I plead "guilty") would say that this is so that there are a lot of companies with a lot of executives that can contribute to political campaigns, participate in the "revolving door" between government employment and civilian jobs, can give elected officials bragging rights about how many federal dollars are spent in the district, etc.

The shift from using government employees to using contractors is always sold as being economical and permitting additional flexibility.  But that is 100% BS.  Here's what Snowden has to say on the subject:
The extent of my access [as a contractor] meant that the process itself might be broken, that the government had given up on meaningfully managing and promoting its talent from within.
Anyhow, Snowden "revolving door"ed between government employment and being a civilian contractor a couple of times.  For the most part he found it easier to move to whatever work he wanted to move to by being a civilian contractor.  Being a civilian contractor also paid a lot better.

He rightly questions this system particularly when it comes to system administrators.  System administrators are like janitors in that they see everything.  Janitors see it in the trash.  System administrators see it on the file systems of the computers they administer and across the networks they monitor.  As such, they are the ones who need to be the most trusted people anywhere in the system.  So, from a practical point of view, they have the highest effective security clearance of anyone.  This may or may not be reflected in their "official" clearance level.

So why should a contractor, who owes whatever allegiance he might possess to a company like Dell or Booz Allen (two of the companies Snowden worked for), work diligently to preserve and protect the government and its interests?  Shouldn't you want you want these people above all to have interests that are tightly aligned with those of the government?  Yet it seems that these most critical jobs are the first to be outsourced.

There is (or used to be) a strain of thought in conservativism called "strict construction".  The idea is that if you want to understand what is and is not Constitutional you should look at the plain text of the US Constitution.  Beyond that, it is also appropriate to look at what the founding fathers had to say at the time.  See what their general thinking was on an issue.

Then look closely at what they had to say about various components that were put into or left out of the Constitution.  Words written and thoughts thought at the time should guide you.  The Constitution does not need updating to allow for new and changed conditions that have come into being between then and now, they say.  The sole exception applies to the various amendments to the Constitution that have been approved since.

There are also large "militia" and "gun rights" groups associated with conservatives.  They note that the US was born in revolution so revolution is always an option.  If, of course, there is a "just cause" and the powers that be are not moving appropriately to redress this just cause.

Snowden lays out a case for his actions based on these two concepts.  He first analyzes the plain language of the Constitution,  For instance, the fourth amendment reads "the right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized".

He then argues that much of what the IC routinely sweeps up falls into the category of what the fourth amendment says should be "secure" from government snooping.  He then goes on to argue that warrants are not properly issued that would permit the government to snoop in a Constitutionally appropriate manner.  In short, Constitutionally speaking, the IC is way out of line and something needs to be done about it.

His argument is completely in line with mainstream conservative thought when it comes to strict construction.  It is also completely in line with other constitutional and civil liberties experts from other parts of the political spectrum have to say.  So this, in Snowden's thinking, constitutes a "just cause".

Then there is the matter of the remedy.  If the institution is moving to correct the wrong than no action is warranted on Snowden's part.  But he amply documents in the material he caused to be released, and to which he had legal access as a systems administrator before then, that the leaders of the IC put these policies in place on purpose.  They worked hard to do exactly what they did.

And since then they have taken many steps both to keep these policies in place and to make sure that word of them did not leak out.  So Snowden rightly concluded that any effort to take action while staying within the system was doomed to failure.  And that, according to the logic espoused by the militia/gun people, justifies "revolutionary action".  So here too Snowden's actions fall squarely within the boundaries of conservative thought in this area.  In this case, however, many people located along other parts of the political spectrum would and did beg to differ.

But so far what I have described is Snowden's opinion of the material he had uncovered.  Let's take a look for ourselves at what Snowden found that so concerned him.  And to do that properly we should first take a step back.  You see, for Snowden, history started with 9/11.  He made no effort to find out what had come before.  But I have been interested in this subject for decades.  I am, for instance, currently reading a 750 page tome that covers the history of intelligence activities starting with ancient times and going forward from there.

But we don't need to go so far afield in either time or place.  It turns out that in the period between the first and second World War there was a time when a US intelligence agency received a copy of every single international telegram transiting New York.  Domestically, the FBI operated a "black bag" unit for many years.   It specialized in illegal break-ins.  The FBI also tapped phones, usually legally but often not.  But this sort of thing was so difficult and expensive to do that all government agencies combined could only go after perhaps a few hundred people.  Yet there are hundreds of millions of people in the US.

All this is "security by obscurity".  Almost everyone is safe from being spied upon, not by reason of the fact that it is illegal, or that regulations prohibit it, but by the fact that it is so difficult and expensive that only prominent people get targeted.  Passing laws, writing regulations, putting effective controls in place, can all help (and have helped in the past).  But with the computerization of everything and the internet-ization of everything, the fact that there are a lot of us is getting less and less effective as a protection.

The cost and difficulty involved in snooping has dropped precipitously in recent decades.  In the run up to 9/11 it was relatively hard to snoop on people.  And, as a result of Watergate and a big scandal that erupted a few years later that involved the FBI spying on groups who were peacefully organizing against the Vietnam war, the laws were fairly tight and the IC fairly careful.  Snowden was apparently unaware of these and other pre-9/11 examples of IC overreach and the waxing and waning efforts to control it.  I don't know if his behavior would have been different had he known.

According to Snowden, the IC were blamed for missing 9/11 and accepted the blame.  I think the situation in more complicated but, in the interests of brevity, I am going to skip over that.  In any case, after 9/11 the Bush administration asked the IC "what do you need to do better next time?"  The IC's response was "give us a lot of money then cut us loose from regulation and oversight so we can us do anything we think is appropriate".  The result was the USA/PATRIOT Act, which gave the IC a ton of money and authorization to do pretty much anything they wanted to do.

The resulting buildup had only been under way for a few years when Snowden joined up.  So he had a front row seat on the worst excesses.  One of the things the IC asked for and got was wide authority to access pretty much any kind of data about anyone.  That was bad.  But what made it even worse was that they got authority to make it illegal for the companies on the receiving end of one of these requests to even acknowledge the existence of the request.  The law forced telephone companies, for instance, to lie about the very existence of a subpoena from the NSA asking for "all telephone records of all calls".

For those who don't follow this sort of thing as closely as I do, there are three principle agencies involved in all this.  The NSA is responsible for SIGINT, SIGnals INTelligence, anything they can find out about radio signals, the internet, and such like.  The CIA was responsible for HUMINT, HUMan INTelligence, roughly everything else.  But both agencies were restricted to activities happening overseas.  In other words, prior to 9/11 both the CIA and the NSA were expressly forbidden to spy on US citizens, especially if they were in the US.  The third agency, the FBI, was responsible for both SIGINT and HUMINT within the US and with respect to US citizens.

One of the main causes of 9/11 was "silo-ing", one agency not working closely with the others but instead keeping what they knew "in a silo".  As a result, nobody had the full picture.  The other main cause was a lack of focus.  The Clinton Administration had a cabinet level committee monitoring Al Qaeda.  The Bush administration shelved that.

So modest changes, primarily making all the agencies work together better, would have been enough to prevent another 9/11.  But the IC saw an opportunity and took it.  And things were set up so that there was basically no oversight.  Just the way an out of control bureaucrat likes it.  As a result, the IC was completely out of control at that time.

Here's Snowden's take on how the IC viewed themselves and 9/11:
The general sense of having been manipulated by the Bush Administration and then blamed for its worst excesses gave rise to a culture of victimization and retrenchment.
In that environment the IC is not going to ask itself "are we going too far?"  Instead, they are going to say "we need everything so that we always have enough dirt so we can successful defend outselves the next time something goes wrong".  So they tried to collect everything and to save everything.

When the Obama administration came in they could have tightened things up, cleaned things up, and reigned things in.  But they didn't.  Obama pretty much went along with everything IC related that he inherited from the Bush administration.  Snowden is justifiably harsh in his book for Obama's actions, or rather inactions, in this area.  This is a criticism I second even though I am an Obama fan.

Snowden concludes that "I had been protecting not my country but the state".  And by "state" he means the IC.  Later, he says "it was time to face the fact that the IC believed themselves above the law, and given how broken the promise [of meaningful oversight] was, they were right".  In short, "they'd hacked the Constitution".

This line of thinking led Snowden to believe he had to act.  And he felt that he was uniquely positioned to do so.  As a result of the early successes I mentioned above, Snowden was given an unusual degree of latitude.  In the middle of all this he found out he had Epilepsy.  He used this as an excuse to move to Hawaii and into a less stressful job.  But part of what was going on with him was that he had figured out that he would actually have access to more information from a "lower level" (think janitorial) position there.

This proved to be true.  While there he implemented a system for broadly collecting information from across the intelligence community and summarizing it in one handy spot.  He managed (social engineering) to sell the project as one that would benefit the IC.  But this was the foundation of the data collection that produced the wide range of documents he later provided to the press.  The details are interesting.  If you want to learn more about this, read his book.

His revelations did do a lot of good, in my opinion.  People had not had convincing evidence of how wide spread and invasive the data collection being done by the IC was.  And remember where I said the NSA and CIA were prohibited from domestic activities.  Post 9/11, that was no longer true and the reason we know this is because the Snowden documents told us so.  It turned out there was a lot of spying on ordinary US citizens going on.  The IC was collecting vast amounts of information on the routine activities of all of us.

Snowden's book is more of a memoir than a "this is what the documents reveal" so you will have to go elsewhere for a more complete description of what he revealed and what was changed as a result.  I will touch on just one thing.  There is something called the FISA court.  At the time of the Snowden revelations it was simply a rubber stamp.  Whatever the IC asked for, no matter how outrageous, the FISA court approved it.

That has changed and we know it has because of the Mueller Report.  Substantial detail on certain FISA warrants was provided therein.  As a result, we now know that the IC has to submit substantial documentation to get a FISA warrant and that the court takes its job seriously when it comes to making sure that a sufficient case has been made before issuing a warrant permitting the IC to go forward.

Have the changes been sufficient to make me happy?  Not even close.  But the situation has substantially improved.  And remember "security by obscurity"?  The IC has created a gigantic system for vacuuming up all kinds of information.  But traffic on the internet has grown by leaps and bounds since Snowden's revelations.  And this means that even with the IC's budget, which was more than $77 billion back in 2013, it gets harder and harder to filter the useful information out of the torrent we collectively now produce.  The playing field is slowly tilting back toward "security by obscurity" and that's a good thing.

As I noted above, there are a lot of people who are unhappy, to put it mildly, with Snowden.  But, like so much of modern politics, any kind of serious analysis is completely lacking.  As I noted above, Snowden's thinking is squarely in line with strict constructionist and militia/gun-rights thinking.  So they should be his most ardent supporters, right?  Wrong!  They are his most ardent detractors when, if they actually believed what they say they believe, they should be his most ardent supporters.  Opinions on the left are scattered.  But then there is no consensus position about these issues on the left.

Now, let me cover the story of how he ended up in Russia because it's short and fun.  As I laid out above, he had a plan for every step of the way and his plan worked.  Except he didn't have a plan for the final step, how to get away.  So he made it to Hong Kong, a place he selected as being press friendly (at the time) and lacking a US extradition treaty.  So far so good.  He was able to meet with journalists there, transfer the data to them, and spend some time with them explaining what they now had.  Also, so far so good.

But then they published.  As expected, he was immediately targeted.  To get away he needed to go to a country that would provide shelter and rebuff efforts to extradite him.  Hong Kong was not up to that task.  So he picked Ecuador.  We'll never know if that choice would have worked out because he never made it to there.

The Obama Administration immediately made it hard for him to travel by putting pressure on every country they could to deny him permission to overfly their territory.  So the only feasible route his supporters could figure out was Hong Kong to Moscow to Cuba to Ecuador.  He succeeded in getting on the plane in Hong Kong and the plane took off from there on time.

But while it was in the air the Administration took the additional step of revoking his passport.  So when he landed in Moscow he no longer had a valid passport so he could not leave.  Efforts to secure a new passport, say one issued by another country, failed.  He spent 90 days in the Moscow airport before the Russians decided to grant him limited residency.  So he now lives in an apartment in Moscow with the woman who was his girlfriend and who is now his wife.

Snowden claims the Russians have gotten no intelligence out of him.  Others have other ideas but, so far, there is no credible evidence contradicting Snowden's story.  The US government would like to embarrass Snowden.  The best way to do this would be to demonstrate that the Russians got a significant amount of material out of him.  But they have yet to go down this path.

Finally, we are confronted with the deepest of ironies.  The IC made a power grab in the wake of 9/11.  And for a long time it worked.  They got a big budget and authority to do pretty much whatever they wanted.  It was the dream scenario of every power hungry bureaucrat.

Obama pretty much left them alone in the early part of his administration.  The Snowden revelations caused the IC to be reigned in to an extent.  But they still had the giant budgets and way more maneuvering room than they had had before 9/11.  And if Hillary had been elected the good times would no doubt have continued.

But she wasn't.  And President Trump has nothing but contempt for the IC.  He believes foreign leaders like Putin over what the IC has to say.  The amount of injury this has done to the IC dwarfs whatever harm Snowden might have done to them (and I claim that in the long run he benefited them).

Sure, they still have the bloated budget but that's pretty much it.  As Trump trashes long standing alliances and cooperation agreements other countries, they have become more and more reluctant to work with the US IC.  And that severely constrains the IC's ability to act independently.  Being in the US IC just isn't as much fun as it used to be.  And, if you are working there to do good, it's even worse.

So they completely missed the greatest threat out there to their (and our) way of life.  That failure makes whatever IC shortcoming that 9/11 may possibly have brought to light shrink to insignificance.  And the "unfair" treatment they received at the hands of the Bush Administration was nothing compared to what Trump has dished out and continues to dish out on a nearly daily basis.  Irony of ironies.

Sunday, October 6, 2019

Bizarro World

It is a common refrain these days that liberals and conservatives live in different worlds.  These two segments of our population often have "polar opposite" views about what is true.  Both sides say about the other "for them up is down, black is white, and true is false".  I want to talk about a specific instance where this scenario is what's playing out.  Liberals and conservatives now see key events in Ukraine so differently that there is almost no commonality.

One way to characterize this situation is to make reference to "Bizarro World".  Most people get the reference even though it dates back to before a lot of us (but not me) were born.  You see, Bizarro World is a comic book invention.  More specifically, it comes from the fantasy world Superman occupies in what we now call "the DC Universe".

The "DC" stands for Detective Comics, an early comic book line from a company with a boring name.  Times change and Detective Comics got short handed to DC and the company decided to rename itself.  Today, most people are familiar with the DC "universe" and the Marvel "universe", for instance.  Dedicated fans can lay out the parameters of one of these fantasy worlds in obsessive detail.  But even the most casual observer knows that Superman and Batman anchor the DC universe.  And it is to the elaborate fantasy world DC built around Superman in the '60s to which we owe the invention of Bizarro World.

Turning out an issue a month in a dozen or so lines of comics is exhausting.  You quickly burn through all the variations on idea after idea after idea.  The desperation born out of this crushing reality spawned Bizarro World.  The code that governs this world is "us do opposite of all Earthly things.  Us hate beauty!  Us love ugliness!  Is big crime to make anything perfect on Bizarro World".  In a word, change up to down, black to white, true to false, etc., and see if you can come up with a fun story to put into a comic book.

The DC writers had great success with this.  They created an anti-Earth that was cube shaped instead of spherical.  They populated it with an anti-Superman, and so on.  It was a success in that it spawned a whole bunch of stories that could be used to fill up a whole bunch of pages of comic book after comic book.  And it was very popular with readers.

As a result of this sustained popularity "Bizarro" and "Bizarro World" became concepts that became a regular part of popular culture.  People who would not be caught dead within a mile of a comic book or a comic book store knew what the terms meant.

And that's where we stand with some fundamental assumptions about Ukraine now.  Both sides now see the other side as pushing a Bizarro World narrative on the subject.  But before I go into that I want to explore the question:  is a Bizarro World even possible?  Sure, it works in a comic book.  There the author can hide any problems and dodge around any inconsistencies.  The readers suspend disbelief and go along with it if the story and the situation are fun.  But what about the real world?

Let's start with a real world example that was explored fictionally about a hundred and fifty years ago, the "Looking-Glass" world.  In 1871 Lewis Carol published a sequel to his wildly popular "Alice in Wonderland" called "Alice through the Looking-Glass and What Alice Found There".   The launching point for the story was the observation that if you look through a mirror, the less pretentions word we now use instead of "Looking-Glass", then we see a Bizarro world.  Behind the Looking-Glass what is on the right in the real world becomes on the left and vice versa.

Lewis started with that idea, posited that Alice could somehow enter this world by stepping through the Looking-Glass, and went on from there.  The world residing on the other side of the Looking-Glass looks pretty much like the real world.  But that world often contains doors.  What is beyond the door we see in the in the Looking-Glass World?  Carol posited that a quite bizarre world might be found there, just beyond what we could see from the real world.  And that's what most of the book concerns itself with.  And it does so in a very delightful manner.

Confining ourselves, for the moment, to what we can observe of the Looking-Glass world from the real world, we can make some observations about the rules that govern that specific Bizarro World.  Not everything is different.  In the part we can see, left and right are switched but up stays up, down stays down, and near and far stay near and far.  In other words, there is only the one change.

That's true, at least, of the parts of the Looking-Glass World that we can observe.  In theory it is possible that the parts that extend beyond the parts we can observe can have many additional differences.  We can't see there and, unlike Alice, we can't go there, so we have no way of finding out.  Carol's ability to invent many entertaining additional differences and place them in that terra incognita is what makes the book fun.

But the Looking-Glass World is fictitious.  Are there Bizarro Worlds that actually exist?  The answer turns out to be yes!  Imagine a short video of two pucks caroming off of each other on an air hockey table.  The red puck comes in from the left.  The white puck comes in from the right.  They collide in the middle and each recoils back the way it came.  Imagine watching this video.  Now ask yourself this:  is the video being run forwards or backwards?

It turns out you can't tell.  That's because the basic physics on display is "time invariant".  The laws work the same whether time runs forward from the past to the future or runs backward from the future to the past.

This is known in physics as the "time's arrow" problem.  Which way does time's arrow point and can we prove it?  And in most situations with most of the law of physics, the answer is no.  You can't tell which direction time flows in.  The laws of physics are exactly the same regardless of which way time's arrow points.

So we have a Bizarro World situation.  With respect to time's arrow we can't tell whether we are in the "real" world where time's arrow points from the past to the future, or the Bizarro World where time's arrow points from the future to the past.  But it turns out that there is a solution to this particular problem.

Imagine you have a big glass jar and two equal sized bags of jelly beans.  One bag is full of red jelly beans and the other bag is full of black ones.  Now pour first the red then the black bag into the jar.  At this point you will have a layer of red beans on the bottom and a layer of black ones on top of it.  Now stir the jar up.  Soon all the beans will be mixed together.

If you make a video of all this it will be obvious which way the video is running when you later play it back.  If layers of red and black beans merge into a mix the video is being run forward.  If a mix of beans resolves itself into a layer of red and a layer of black, the video is being run backwards.  What's going on here is something called entropy.

Entropy is a measure of chaos.  In general, as time passes in a forward direction the universe moves from a state of low entropy (everything is ordered) to a state of higher entropy (everything is chaotic).  The jar with two layers of beans is more ordered.  The jar with everything stirred together is more chaotic.

Now science has a whole scheme for measuring order and chaos and for calculating the amount of entropy a system contains.  But the details are complicated so I am going to skip over them.  I will note, however, that once the beans are mixed up you can keep stirring the jar as long as you want.  The beans are not going to settle out into layers no matter how long you continue to stir.

Returning to our air hockey table.  If we widen our shot and shoot video for longer we will eventually be able to figure out which way the tape is running.  If the pucks start out going quickly and, after bouncing around for a while, slow down and eventually stop then the tape is running forward.

If the pucks start out not moving but then start moving and then go faster and faster as the tape plays then it is running backwards.  Air hockey tables are low friction devices.  But they still have some friction.  And friction is an entropy increasing phenomenon.  So entropy measurements tell us which way time's arrow points.

Similarly, we have all kinds of particles and anti-particles.  If we replace particles with anti-particles and watch what happens it turns out the same thing happens as would happen if they were particles.  The laws of physics work the same for particles and anti-particles.  We can't tell a set of particles interacting among themselves from a set of anti-particles interacting among themselves.  So which is real and which is Bizarro?

As far is physicists can tell, there's no way to tell.  What they can say is that what we think of as the "real" universe is 99+% made of particles and contains only small trace amounts of anti-particles.  If a particle meets its anti-particle they both get changed into a nothing but lot of energy.  So if you have an "electron" and you want to know whether its a particle (electron) or an anti-particle (positron), try to hit it with something you know for sure is an electron.  If they avoid each other the "electron" actually is an electron.  If both particles get replaced by a flash of energy then it was a positron.

But deciding that what, for the most part, makes up the mater in our universe is particles and not anti-particles is a convenient but arbitrary decision.  Scientific observations tell us that it's almost all the same class of stuff.  Physics does not tell us which class of stuff it is.  If everything switched to the other class we wouldn't notice anything different.  We chose to call the situation we are familiar with the "real" version and a hypothetical situation where everything got switched the Bizarro version.  But there is no factual basis for this choice, only convenience.

Here is what at first appears to be a similar situation.  Benjamin Franklin figured out that electricity came in two opposite flavors.  Like particles and anti-particles, opposites attract and annihilate each other.  Each kind on its own is repelled by more of that same kind.  With nothing to go on, Franklin picked one kind at random and decided it was "positive" electricity and, therefore, the other kind was "negative" electricity.  But, now that we know more, we know that Franklin got it wrong.

In many circumstances electricity acts like a fluid.  And in most cases that fluid is composed of electrons, negatively charged particles.  So it is natural to think of electricity as flowing from positive to negative.  But in almost all cases, what is actually flowing, is flowing from negative to positive.

With electricity there is a way to tell which is the normal direction of flow and which is the Bizarro direction.  And Franklin chose the Bizarro one.  Engineers and scientists have long since figured all this out.  Sometimes it makes a difference and they make the appropriate adjustment.  Sometimes it doesn't and they just get on with it.

I wanted to run through a number of actual examples of "real world" versus "Bizarro World" in order to highlight something that is true of all Bizarro Worlds that can actually exist.  In each case going back to the Looking-Glass one, there is a specific rule as to how you do the "reverse" necessary to switch from "real" to "Bizarro".  But, what is even more important, sometime you can tell which is the real world that actually exists and which is the Bizarro one that is only make believe.

In the Looking-Glass World you switch left with right but leave everything else the same.  In "time's arrow" case, most of the time you can't tell which direction time is flowing.  But you can if you observe a system's entropy.  Pretty much everything else stays the same.

In the particle - anti-particle case, all the quantum attributes of the "particle" have to be flipped so that a particle anti-particle collision results in everything being converted to pure energy.  That means that for any attribute like spin, that can't be converted to energy, the particle and anti-particle must have exactly opposite amounts of that attribute.  Both particles can have a positive amont of mass because mass can be converted to energy.

If we look at the Bizarro World of the comic books we quickly see that those worlds are not actually possible.  Suspension of disbelief is necessary.  For instance, it turns out that gravity on Bizarro World works pretty much they way it does in the real world.  And that means that a cubical planet the same size as Earth is not possible.  But it still make for a fun story.  With that as background, let's move on to Ukraine.

Here's a quick history of Ukraine.  For a long time Ukraine was one of the "republics" that made up the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the USSR.  When it came to U. N. seats, they were each an independent country.  But Russia ran the whole show so, for the most part, they were a single country.

Then the USSR fell part into it s constituent pieces in about 1990.  At that point Ukraine became an independent country in actuality, and not just when it was convenient for the Russians to pretend it was.  But, as part of its history, Ukraine inherited a bunch of nuclear power reactors, four of which were located at Chernobyl.  One of them blew up and made a big mess.  The others are still running.

Ukraine also inherited a bunch of nuclear bombs.  In a complicated dance orchestrated with the help of Russia and the US, these were disposed of and Ukraine became a non-nuclear power.  For a few years Ukraine was able to operate relatively autonomously.  It was the Ukrainians who, on their own, decided that they wanted to denuclearize.

But about ten years ago Putin decided he wanted more influence on (and control of) how things worked there.  So he managed to get his puppets installed into all the top Ukrainian government positions.  The government was extremely corrupt because it was to Putin's advantage that it be corrupt.
Starting in 2013 the Ukrainians revolted and eventually managed to toss the Putin toadies out.  But this left a fragile country behind.  And initially only the top of the government changed.  That left a corrupt, incompetent, and inefficient bureaucracy still in chare of day to day operations.  The Ukrainian populous wanted the corruption cleaned up but this was hard to do due to its pervasiveness.  But efforts were begun immediately.

And almost immediately the Russians staged a military operation that changed control of a peninsula called Crimea from Ukrainian authority to Russian authority.  The Russians invested only a modest amount of effort in pretending that this was anything other than a simple power grab.  But nobody was well positioned to do much about it.  Sanctions were imposed but that was it.

Shortly after that, the Russians also invaded two eastern province of Ukraine.  Again, only a modest effort was made to disguise the fact that this was a straight forward power grab by the Russians.  Again, nobody was in a position to do much about it except ramp the sanctions up a couple of notches.  Putin would very much like all the sanctions lifted.

So, starting in 2014 and continuing ever since, Ukraine has been involved in a war with Russia.  It is very much a "hot" war.  People in uniforms with serious military hardware are shooting at each other.  The number of soldiers on each side is modest compared to some other wars.  But it is very much a big deal as far as the Ukrainians are concerned.

At the same time Ukraine has been trying to get their act together and root out corruption.  A key figure in this latter campaign has been Viktor Shokin.  His job was to root out corruption and prosecute it.  But instead he was wildly ineffective.  He was seen as protecting key figures involved in corruption rather than going after him.  He was finally booted out and replaced by someone who has been doing a much better job.

Ukraine has had two elections since 2013, a remarkable feat given what has been going on there.  Even more remarkably, both have been widely seen as fair.  The 2019 election put Volodymyr Zelensky into power.  He has a background in show business and promised to accelerate efforts to deal with corruption.  He got 73% of the vote.  One reason for his popularity was that he was seen as being outside the traditional power structure.  Voters believed his outsider status would make it easier to deal effectively with corruption.

So that's how Ukraine got to where it now is.  Meanwhile, in the US there was a consensus about Ukraine.  Both Democrats and Republicans agreed that the pre-2013 situation was bad.  Both Democrats and Republicans saluted the ouster of the Putin supported regime in 2014.  Both Democrats and Republicans agreed that Russian behavior in Ukraine must not be tolerated.

So various sanctions were imposed on Russia in an attempt to punish them.  These sanctions received bipartisan support.  Both parties saluted the ouster of Shokin.  Both parties have been broadly supportive of both military and economic aid to Ukraine.  For a long thime this consensus held.

But over the last couple of years that consensus has broken down.  What has changed is that Donald Trump is now President.  And Donald Trump is unabashedly pro-Russia in general and pro-Putin in particular.  He has worked assiduously to get the sanctions imposed on Russia as a results of their actions against Ukraine removed.  This has necessitated a rethinking of the whole Ukraine situation.

Here is the current official line from the Trump Administration:
  1. Shokin was not doing an incompetent job and actually interfering with attempts to root out corruption.  Instead, he was an effective corruption fighter who has been smeared.  A part of the successful smear was perpetrated by then Vice President Joe Biden.  He was helped by his son, Hunter, who was working in Ukraine at the time.
  2. The current government has been insufficiently aggressive at going after corruption and needs to be goaded into doing more by any means necessary.
  3. In 2016 there was a group operating in Ukraine that successfully implemented a disinformation campaign.  They were the ones responsible for the hacking of DNC mail servers and other foreign election interference.  But they succeeded in fooling people into believing it was the Russians.  The Russians were totally innocent of any wrongdoing.
  4. The Ukrainian government should quickly come to some kind of agreement with the Russians.  The agreement would cede territory that Russia has expropriated and end the war.  The agreement should not require the Russians to accept any blame or otherwise be stigmatized.
  5. As a result of the previous item it makes complete sense to remove all of the sanctions placed on Russia, Russian government officials, and Putin associates.  The sanctions would no longer serve any useful purpose.
Most of this represents a clean break with previous Republican thinking on the subject.  Both Democratic and Republican lawmakers saluted the ouster of Shokin at the time.  Both Republican and Democratic lawmakers supported imposing all of the Ukraine-related sanctions currently in place against Russia.  Both Republican and Democratic lawmakers have been supportive of Ukrainian efforts to root out corruption.  But that represents past GOP thinking and does not represent current GOP thinking in the Trump era.

It represents a Bizarro World when compared to either current Democratic thinking or past Republican thinking on the subject.  So who's living in a Bizarro World, Democrats or Republicans?  As my examples above showed, sometimes you can tell and sometimes you can't.  This is a case where you can tell which is real and which is Bizarro.

The way you do this is to carefully determine what is known and what is knowable.  And if we do that, the current Republican position quickly falls apart.  When it comes to corruption "follow the money" almost always works.

Paul Manafort (now in prison for various Federal offenses and likely to be convicted in State court for more) worked in Ukraine up to 2013.  He ended up making a lot of money supporting the old corrupt regime.  Anyone like Shokin, who was closely aligned with the old regime, should be viewed with suspicion.  Joe Biden was conspicuously living a modest lifestyle and still does.  And there is no evidence of any big stash of cash around.  Roughly the same thing seems to be true with respect to his son, Hunter.

Before Trump came into office there was a consensus that Shokin was a bad dude.  No evidence has surfaces since to indicate that was wrong.  Instead there is substantial evidence that the corruption situation has improved noticeably since then.  Is it as good as people would like?  No, but the current Ukrainian government is the first to admit that.

The DNC mail serves were hacked.  The DNC hired a company called Crowdstrike to figure out who did it.  They provided substantial evidence that it was the Russians.  The US intelligence community agreed.  As do others who have looked into this.

The Mueller Report provided substantial additional evidence of Russian efforts directed at the 2016 election.  No one has found any credible evidence of any Ukrainian based efforts to interfere in the 2016 election.  Instead this is a conspiracy theory found in the dark recesses of the Internet.  The originators of this theory are long on rhetoric and short on checkable evidence.

The Russian military has engaged in two different actions aimed at Ukraine.  The first one resulted in Russia taking complete control of Crimea.  The second action is still ongoing and the conflict area is currently characterized as an active war zone.  Russia has provided no credible justification for either action.  It is clear that Russia has grabbed territory from Ukraine by force because it could.  The Russians are the bad guys.

Since then they have taken no action that would justify the reduction of any sanctions.  Yet the Trump Administration has removed sanctions from one of Putin's pet Oligarchs.  The Trump Administration has provided no justification for this move.  They did it because they could.  (Senate Republicans, led by Mitch McConnell, have refused to override Trump vetoes that would have reversed this and other pro-Russian moves the Trump Administration has made.)

The Trump Administration has made many moves aimed at eliminating various Ukraine related sanctions on Russia, Putin, and his associates.  For the most part, it has been a bridge too far for congressional Republicans to go along with removing them.  So, most of them remain in place.

Let me finish by reviewing the real situation, the one espoused by Democrats:
  1. Shokin was a bad guy who was enabling corruption rather than fighting it.  The Biden's were right to do what they could to help get him kicked out.  They did not benefit, financially or otherwise, from that action.
  2. The current Ukrainian Administration has been trying to do what it can to reduce corruption.  They are being opposed by internal forces within Ukraine who benefit from the corruption.  They are also being vigorously opposed by Putin.  Rather than being helpful, the Trump administration is muddying the waters.  Under the guise of corruption reduction (a subject the Administration has shown no interest in in any other country) the Trump Administration has been actively hindering Ukrainian efforts to reduce corruption.
  3. The Administration has done this by holding Shokin up as a hero when he is actually a villian.
  4. The Administration has also done this by holding up aid because (a) the Europeans aren't contributing enough and/or (b) claiming the Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts are misdirected.  They should be aimed at the Biden family rather than where they are currently aimed.
  5. The Administration also believes that a proper investigation would turn up the Ukrainian based plot to disrupt the 2106 US election.  But this has been competently investigated before and no credible evidence of a Ukrainian based plot has surfaced.  Believing in this plot also requires ignoring the vast amount of data pointing to Russia instead of Ukraine.  [The following additional text was added on 10/8/2019]  And the Senate Intelligence Committee released a report saying, in effect, that "the Russians did it".  The report was approved along bipartisan lines.  It was issued by the Republican majority and endorsed by the Democratic minority.  In a second report issued after this post was initially published they came to the identical conclusion.  This report was also issued in the same bipartisan manner.  The first report outlined the case for Russian meddling.  The second report focused on Russian efforts channeled through social media.  [End of added material]  
  6. Even if you believe in the Ukrainian plot to disrupt the 2016 US election (which you should not) then the Russian invasion of Ukraine is still ongoing.  So there is still no reason to relax the sanctions.  They should instead be strengthened.
In summary, the Bizarro World created to justify Trump Administration actions with respect to Ukraine is even less credible than the Bizarro World comic book writers dreamed up in the '60s.  And they weren't looking for a scenario that anyone would believe was real.  All they wanted to do was to come up with a story that was a fun fantasy to indulge in.

But Trump and his Republican supporters are deadly serious.  They want their supporters to believe that what they have come up with is actually true.  (They also want their supporters to believe several other Bizarro Worlds are real.)  Unfortunately, unlike comic book readers of the '60s who knew it was all a fantasy, far too many of his supporters can no longer tell where fantasy ends and reality begins.

[Note:  Additional text was added on 10/9/2019 to item 5 of "the real situation" listed above.  No material was changed or deleted.]