Sunday, May 16, 2021

Israel: Chapter 2021

 The Israelis and the Palestinians are at it again.  It is only a slight exaggeration to say that more than 2,000 chapters could be written about the various conflicts that have erupted in the area.  Israel is in the area that serves as the land connection between Europe, Asia, and Africa.  A lot of people have gotten into a lot of fights trying to move to or through the area.

As a result, the region has a storied history.  How storied?  As is commonly reckoned Seattle, the city I live in, has a history that dates back all the way to about 1850 AD.  (This ignores the history of the various peoples that were there when the White man arrived, but cut me some slack here.  I'm drawing a contrast.)  History in the area in and around Israel dates back to something like 1,000 BC.

And, if we went all the way back to this time, we would find here pretty much what we would find in most of the rest of the world.  Tribes wandered around.  One tribe would fight with another.  Sometimes the invading tribe would completely displace the people occupying the land.  Or the occupying tribe would succeed in fighting the invaders off.  Or something in-between would happen and they would end up intermingling.  In those days possession was not nine tenths of the law.  It was the entirety of the law.  Nobody back then worried about legal niceties.

At some point the Israeli tribe, a tribe that adhered to the Jewish Religion, moved into what was then called Palestine.  But then they got kicked out.  But then they came back.  This is all discussed in the Bible.  During the New Testament era, an era that started around 33 AD, the area was governed by Rome but the bulk of the population consisted of Israelis who were not Roman citizens.

But that didn't last.  In 68 AD the Romans got mad at the Jews, destroyed their main temple, and kicked them out of Jerusalem.  The eventual result was the "diaspora", the exodus of Jews from Palestine and to small communities scattered all over the world.  It took a long time but eventually there were few Jews left anywhere in Palestine.

Then along came the Crusades.  They had nothing to do with the Jews.  The idea was to wrest control of Palestine, or at least the "Holy Places", from the Arab people who lived there, and give that control to Christians.  In other words, the plan was for the official religion of Palestine to shift from the Islamism to Christianity without coming anywhere near Judaism in the process.  The Crusades eventually failed.  And Jews failed to return to Palestine.  The exodus continued unabated.

That brings us to the twentieth century.  At the beginning of the century Arabs were in firm control of Palestine, and the Jewish population was still miniscule, at best.  But Pogroms (see the musical "Fidler on the Roof" for some insight into how Jews were treated in Russia at the time) and other forms of oppression got Jews to thinking that they should reclaim their ancestral homeland so they would have some place to retreat to.

"Next year in Jerusalem" was a popular Jewish lament at the time.  In spite of this, little was done.  Then World War I happened.  And the Ottoman Empire, the political entity that controlled Palestine and much else, was on the losing side.  After the War ended, the winners happily carved up all of the land the Empire had controlled and parceled it out to themselves as spoils of war.

Great Britain was on the winning side.  Among other things, it got "The Palestine Mandate".  That means that they got to set the rules in Palestine.  They saw no reason to make it easy for Jews to immigrate.  So, while they made it possible for Jews to move to Palestine, they didn't make it easy.  Among other things, they didn't want to stir the locals up too much.  And the locals were very hostile to Jewish immigration.

So, by the start of World War II there is a significant Jewish population in Palestine.  But they still constituted a relatively small minority.  Even so, for the first time in about 1,500 years, there is a significant Jewish population living in Palestine.  And, of course, before and during the War the Nazis set out to exterminate all European Jews.  They came shockingly close.

After the War Jews the world round got serious about turning Palestine into Israel, a Jewish State.  (See the book and movie "Exodus" for one of many tactics they used during this period.)  The Palestinians were very unhappy with the Brits about all this.  But the Brits and other European countries were embarrassed by the whole Nazi "Final: Solution" business.  Ultimately the British decided the area was more trouble than it was worth.  They turned control over to the Jews and, for the most part, washed their hands of the whole thing.

The Arab countries surrounding Israel were very unhappy about this.  They started a War with the objective of wiping out the Israeli forces before they even got a chance to get themselves organized.  They would then change the name from Israel back to Palestine and return control to the Arab population.  In a surprising turn of events the small Jewish population with its small military was able to defeat the larger and better equipped Arab armies.  Now for an aside.

As I noted above, people have been invading places that already have people in them forever.  Once a certain scale is reached with respect to one of these invasions it gets called a war.  If you go back far enough it turns out that almost every nook and cranny of Earth has been fought over.  (The only exception I can think of is Antarctica.)

In some cases a particular piece of land has only been fought over a few times.  In most cases it has been fought over many times.  As a result of this, a case can pretty much always be made that the current occupiers of a piece of land are not the rightful owners.  Some other group, perhaps several other groups, have a reasonable case for why the land rightfully belongs to them.

Mankind has built up a lot of experience with this sort of thing.  Often the same group of people will have been on the winning side of one conflict and the losing side of another.  In situations like his informal conventions grow up.  One such informal convention is called "The Laws of War".  It sets out expectations for what the winners can expect and what the losers can expect.  

The Laws of War cover many contingencies.  But I am going to only consider one.  What happens if a foreign army invades but is successfully and decisively repulsed by the current occupants?  The Laws of War says that in this situation all prior potential claims to the land in dispute by the invaders and their supporters are washed away.  War settles all ownership questions in favor of the current occupants.

That's what happened in the Israeli War of Independence, which was fought in the late '40s.  An army made up of contingents from the several Arab countries invaded Israel.  The intention was to drive the Jews out and return control of what the Jews had named Israel to the local "Palestinian" (Arab) population.  But the invaders lost.  And that loss meant that the outcome of the war conveyed clear title of Israel to the government the Jews had set up.

Prior to this the various Arab countries involved had adhered to the Laws of War just like everybody else.  For instance, there was no "Sharia Law" provisions that contradicted the precepts laid out there.  Arab had been going to war against Arab and non-Arab for Millenia by this point.  In all that time they never found a need to create an alternative to the Laws of War that were in use elsewhere.

But for various political reasons the Arab countries surrounding Israel pretended there was some kind of "Israel" exception.  Part of it, I am sure, is that they lost a War that everybody expected them to win easily. A look at the size, level of training, equipment, etc. indicated that the Arab side was strongly favored.  So, the loss was an embarrassing one.  That left the several Arab governments involved looking for and excuse.

One quickly came to mind.  The loss wasn't a loss.  It was just a temporary setback.  The Arab armies would soon be back and they would be triumphant this time.  Once this idea took hold, the various countries involved told the Arab population to flee from Israel to "temporary" refugee camps.  The camps were only temporary because the Jews would be gone any day now.

And, since their situation was temporary, these refugees were kept separate from the regular population.  After all, they would soon be returning to "Palestine", Israel, but under Arab control.   But these refugees have never been able to return.

The "temporary" camps became permanent.  But since they were always on the verge of no longer being necessary, at least according to the various Arab governments, no effort was ever made to upgrade them.  This created a large group of permanent refugees with a grudge.

By now, generations of "Palestinian Refugees" have been born and raised in these camps.  But the fiction that Israel is a temporary country has persisted in Arab politics.  Everybody now knows that it is a fiction.  But it persists because it serves the needs of the various Arab countries for it to persist.  The fact that it is a fiction doesn't inhibit it from gumming up the works when it comes to making actual progress on many fronts.

Surprisingly, this fiction on the part of Arabs that Israel is a temporary country that will soon be gone also serves the needs of Israeli politicians. The imminent demise of Israel means that Israel faces an existential threat.   If you facing an existential threat the Laws of War permit the taking extreme measures to overcome the threat.

The political history of Israel neatly divides itself into two periods.  There is the "Labor" era and the "Likud" era.  For the first several decades of the country's existence the Labor party dominated its politics.  Labor believed in trying to come to an accommodation with the Palestinians.  "Palestinian" has come to mean the Arabs living in Israel or the "Occupied Territories".  (It also applies to the refugees living in the camps, but I am going to ignore that alternate usage from here on.)

The problem is that they never found a willing partner.  Fault can be found with this, that, or the other proposal the Labor Government of Israel made.  But the Palestinians never seriously engaged.  They used the "Israel is a temporary state" idea as justification for this behavior.  As a result, Labor found that, for the most part, they were negotiating with themselves.

History never stands completely still.  During this period two additional Wars that are of interest to this discussion were fought.  Their names are the "Six Day" War and the "Yom Kippur" War.  If Israel had lost either, the country would have gone out of existence.  In the interests of brevity I am only going to make a few observations about these Wars.  The first happened in the '60s and the second in the '70s.

In the Six Day War the Arabs were clearly the aggressors.  So, according to the Laws of War, this War again confirmed Israel's right to existence and washed away any competing claims.  The situation with respect to the Yom Kippur is more ambiguous.  The Arab armies were posed to strike but Israel fired the first shot.  So Israel couldn't use the "they shot first" justification.  But the Laws or War also address this situation.  The fact that Israel shot first is not enough by itself to justify an ownership change.

One other thing, Israel gained control of a lot of land as a result of these Wars.  Israel then tried to do a "land for peace" deal.  They "voluntarily" relinquished some but not all of the gains.  The Palestinians/Arabs did not respond with "voluntary" countermoves, or pretty much any moves at all.

As a result of the by then long and spectacular lack of success, political leadership eventually shifted in Israel from the more moderate and accommodating Labor party to the hard line Likud party.  It has not shifted back since.  In the Likud era interest in coming to peace with Palestinians and Arabs has waned considerably.

For several decades now sentiment on all sides has been locked in place.  Israel is militant about defending itself from various slights, both real and imagined.  It has slowly clamped down on Palestinians living in Israel.  In the early days the Jews saw Palestinians as a source of cheap unskilled labor.  The Jewish population was not large enough to do all that needing doing.  So Palestinians were a critical resource.

This has slowly changed.  Palestinians have chafed under Jewish restraints.  There are he three "P"s: pay, power, and prestige.  Jews get the high "P" jobs.  Palestinians get the low "P" ones.  As resentments have built Israel has learned to depend less and less on Palestinian labor.  That has allowed them to crack down even harder.  Officially, the crackdowns are all in response to various Palestinian "provocations".

But what's going on is a vicious cycle.  The Palestinians agitate.  The Israelis treat the Palestinians badly.  Some Palestinians use this as an excuse to do something bad.  The Israelis retaliate.  Then they crackdown further.  Wash.  Rinse.  Repeat.  There was an interest by Israelis during the Labor era in trying to break the cycle.  But there was little or no effort to reciprocate on the Palestinian side.  Eventually Israelis in large numbers gave up and put Likud in power.

In the Likud era Israel has engaged in several military offensives outside of its borders.  The anti-Israeli factions within Israel have consistently gotten lots of help from the various countries that surround Israel.  These "incursions" have attempted to punish these outside groups, or at least diminish their capabilities, military or otherwise.  The degree of success has varied considerably.  Needless to say, this has made various groups of Arabs very unhappy with Israel.

And that finally brings us to the current situation.  Both sides have arguments as to why "the other side started it".  But tit for tat has been going on for a long time.  There is always some handy event that can be pointed to when justification is needed.

The fundamental problem is that the conflict remains unresolved.  Also, significant motion toward a real solution has been absent for a long time now.  Someone on one side does something provocative.  That stirs up the other side and things escalate.  Then things either simmer down or they heat up.  As I write this things are still heating up.

Rather than gong into the "he said - she said" that surrounds the current escalation, let me just note that currently escalation serves the needs of both sides.  There is a long simmering conflict between various Palestinian factions.  It suits one faction's needs that a lot of rockets are flying into Israel.  The same thing is true on the Israeli side.  It serves the needs of one Israeli political faction to be seen "fighting a Palestinian uprising".

On paper, it is a one sided conflict, assuming other countries stay out of it.  (This is a likely outcome, at least if the conflict does not significantly exceed its current level of intensity.)  The Israelis have he military capability to do serious damage to the Palestinians.  The Palestinians lack a similar capability to do serious damage to Israel.  But the Palestinians continue to lose battle after battle while they make steady progress toward eventually being able to win the war.

This is because Israel is in big trouble over the long term.  In the first few decades after the establishment of the country its Jewish population increased quickly.  A lot of Jews from the rest of the world moved to Israel and settled there permanently.  But this population influx slowed to a trickle many decades ago.  Meanwhile, the Palestinian population has continued to increase steadily.

This "Population Bomb" problem for the long term stability of Israel has been well known for a long time now.  And for a long time it was thought to be Israel's only serious long term problem.  But Israel now has second problem to go alongside the first one.  For a long time Israel's government was honest and competent.  It has lost considerable ground on both fronts in the past couple of decades.

Israel is a multi-party parliamentary democracy.  For a long time two parties, (i.e. Labor, Likud) controlled most of the seats in the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament.  One of the two parties would prevail in the election and the other would form the backbone of the opposition.  Neither party might command a clear majority, a necessity for forming the government.  But they only feel short by a little.  They could usually rope in a small party without too much trouble and govern pretty much like they actually did hold the majority.

This in turn allowed a party to create and implement a long term political agenda.  They would have to make concessions to the small party.  But the concessions were manageable.  The small party got to punch above its weight but mostly things went the way the large party wanted them to.  And these coalitions would hold together for long periods of time.  In short, the system worked.

But the percentage of seats going to the two largest parties has been in long term decline.  That means that more votes need to be corralled in order to form a governing coalition.  The small parties know that this gives them a stronger bargaining position.  They have taken advantage of this to demand larger and larger concessions.  That in turn has resulted in the dominant party retaining less control. It has also meant that coalitions fall apart more and more quickly.

A successful Prime Minister must more of a wheeler-dealer than a leader.  And keeping policies stable for any length of time becomes harder and harder.  Everything becomes about the short term.  And it becomes about doing what it takes to keep the coalition together for a little longer.  This further incentivizes members of the small parties to misbehave, so they do.  All this gets in the way of good government.

Benjamin Netanyahu has been the Prime Minister for a long time.  He is the leader of Likud.  But the length of time he has managed to remain in office is misleading.  For the past few years frequent elections and a near constant reshuffling of party coalitions have become the norm.  They are now so common that it takes a score card to keep track of who's in, who's out, who is in charge of which ministry, and what the price of their support was.

Not surprisingly, he has been investigated for corruption several times now.  He has shown consummate skill at putting together coalition after coalition.  It has left him little time for anything else.  Is it natural to wonder whether or not he has perhaps stepped over the line a time or two.

He has been on the brink of going on trial for corruption for some time now.  The latest try at getting him in court and before a judge and jury is supposed to happen any day now.  This, and other circumstances, have weakened him to such an extent that he has not been able to keep a coalition together for any length of time.  The result is a Parliamentary Crisis leading to an election every few months.

There has been no recent dramatic shift in voting patterns, so Netanyahu keeps holding on by a thread.  But even he has proved unable to form a government after the last election.  The leader of the biggest opposition party was recently given the task after the clock ran out on Netanyahu's chance.  That's where things stood when the latest clash suddenly erupted "out of nowhere".  Now, hey - there's a war going on.  Netanyahu likely thinks that's good news for him.

Even absent a War (or whatever you want to call the current clash) Israel has become less and less governable.  And the constant state of not peace makes it an unpleasant place to live.  So, it is having trouble attracting and keeping top talent.

And the Palestinians keep getting more and more militant.  It really doesn't matter how strong their case is.  It's strong enough to convince them.  And, of course, the case justifying Israeli behavior is strong enough to convince Israelis.

The Palestinians pay a steep short term price for the resulting escalation.  But the Israelis pay a long term price for the same escalation.  This is not a sustainable situation.  At some point something is going to give.  Lots of people, including the U.S. and Egyptian governments, are trying to get things settled down again.  In the short run that's the humanitarian thing to do.  But I'm not sure it is the right thing in the long term.

The current pattern of behavior by both sides has led to the long term gridlock that characterizes recent history.  We have short periods of a lot of misery separated by longer periods of not quite so much misery.  And nothing gets settled, ever.  So why don't we try something else.  Let both sides go at it.

If I had an alternative that I thought had a chance of yielding a solution both sides would be willing to live with, I would not entertain this idea.  But I don't.  And I don't see any ideas from anyone else or from anywhere else that look good either.

The smart money says that letting both sides go at it for an extended period of time would mean a lot of bloodshed by Palestinians.  It would also be bloody for the Israelis but to a far less extent.  But the vaunted military might of the Israelis has not always delivered victory.  They have even suffered at least one humiliating defeat.  The smart money says that they can hurt the Palestinians badly at little cost.  But the smart money has been wrong before.

Maybe the Palestinians will be forced to change their position and decide it is finally time to cut a deal.  Maybe the Israelis will find military action expensive and unproductive and decide to cut the Palestinians more slack.  Either outcome would change the status quo.  And it might result in less bloodshed over the long term.

We know what will happen if things settle down after a few days with nothing really decided.  The status quo will continue.  The status quo is not working in the long term for anybody.  Unfortunately, it is working in the short term for powerful factions on both sides.  That's why it is the status quo.

Sunday, May 2, 2021

The ISI War

 The title is not correct.  I did not mistakenly type "ISI" when I meant "ISIS".  Nor am I talking about some obscure event.  Instead, I am talking about a War that recently returned to front page prominence.  The War I am talking about is usually called "The Afghan War" or "The War in Afghanistan".  I think that my title for that War is more accurate.  And I will explain why after doing a quick historical dive.

I am going to start my dive in 1812 with the War of the same name.  What is called "The War of 1812" in the U.S. is seen as a side show to the main event, the Napoleonic Wars in Europe.  The Napoleonic Wars had been going on for a long time by 1812.  The U.S. was feeling frisky.  It was not that long after the success of the Revolutionary War and the fledgling country was feeling its oats.

There were several reasons for the start of the War of 1812.  But a big one was the opportunity to pull off a land grab.  Thousands of miles away Britain and France were fully occupied with trying to beat the shit out of each other.  From this side of the pond that opened up what looked like a once in a lifetime opportunity.  Just march North and grab Canada while no one was looking.  What could possibly go wrong?

Everything, as it turned out.  The U.S. lost every major engagement in the War except the one that happened after the peace treaty had been signed.  The U.S. capitol got sacked and burned.  It was just embarrassing fiasco after embarrassing fiasco.  In the end, the U.S. was happy to get of as lightly as they did.

As a result, administrations of all stripes took to heart the advice Washington had given the country in his farewell address.   Not getting involved in foreign entanglements became an oft repeated mantra.  For a long time the country mostly sat things out when it came to foreign adventure.  Then the U.S. got dragged kicking and screaming into World War I.  How this came about is an interesting story but I am going to skip over it.

The U.S. emerged from the fighting with a reputation for having saved the day.  The U.S. paid only a small price to win this accolade so it decided to become heavily involved in the peace talks that followed the War.  The process was generally considered a failure in the U.S. so the country went back to hiding behind its two oceans.  They seemed sufficient protection from anything any other military power might attempt to throw our way.

Then the U.S. got dragged kicking and screaming into World War II.  This story is well known (hint:  Pearl Harbor), so I am going to skip over it too.  But things had changed greatly by the time that War ended.  War now featured submarines, aircraft carriers, long range bombers, and, most importantly, the Atomic Bomb.  The two oceans were no longer the barriers they had once been.

So, the U.S. reversed course and became heavily engaged in world affairs.  Judged to be successful, necessary, or both, the U.S. went from non-participant to World Leader over a period lasting only a few years.  And that brings us to 1953.

The British government found that it had a problem with the government of Iran.  Sure, it was democratically elected and all that.  But it wanted to come between powerful U.S. and British oil companies and the abundant quantities of cheap oil its oil fields were capable of producing.  The Brits asked for U.S. help dealing with the situation.

Instead of just providing help the U.S., in the form of the CIA, elbowed the Brits out of the way and stepped in and took the lead.  The CIA engineered a coup.  The democratic government was ousted and the Shah installed in its place.  He did what we wanted and Iranian oil production remained under the  control of U.S. and British companies.

A PR offensive was launched to paper over the crass commercial motives that were the actual reason for the intervention.  But most of the rest of the world was not fooled.  And, if it had been a one-off then that would have been that.  But it was not.

Over the following decades the CIA engineered many coup attempts in many places.  All were more or less modeled on the original Iranian success.  Some were successful, some were not.  Often the coup attempts were motivated by the interest of one U.S. multinational or another becoming threatened.  Among the failures was, for instance, the U.S. backed invasion of Cuba that resulted in the "Bay of Pigs" fiasco.  Most famously, there was the entire Vietnam War.

The U.S. became notorious for this sort of thing.  But over time the high failure rate became more and more apparent domestically and these tactics fell out of favor.  But the world, particularly the "Third World" remembered.  The U.S. was often labeled as "imperialist" in these circles.  As a result, nationalists in third world countries did not want to be labeled as "imperialist lackeys of the U.S.".

Then Russia invaded Afghanistan in the late '70s.  President Jimmy Carter saw a wonderful opportunity to "Vietnam" the Russians.  Afghans were fiercely patriotic.  They had a reputation for being formidable fighters.  They would be willing to fight hard to throw the Russians out.

But as things stood they lacked the means.  The U.S. could easily provide those means.  But if the U.S. overtly offered to provide such means patriotic Afghans would be forced to turn it down because of the whole "imperialist lackey" thing.  What to do?

I covered how this dilemma got solved in a blog post I wrote all the way back in April of 2012.  Here's the link:  Sigma 5: Afghanistan.  In short, we engaged in War by Proxy.  Proxies were used in all stages of the process.  I am going to focus on only one of those proxies, the ISI, Pakistan's intelligence service.

Various methods involving several different proxies were used to get arms and supplies to Pakistan.  From there the ISI managed the movement of men, money, and material into Afghanistan.  They also organized the final step of getting all of it to the Afghan fighters.

And the whole thing worked.  Everybody in Pakistan and Afghanistan was provided with a cover of plausible deniability.  "What?  These guns.  They are not American guns and I have had no dealings with Americans.  How dare you attempt to impugn my patriotism or anti-imperialist credentials."  And here I am going to stop for a short detour.

Afghanistan has always had its own cultural identity.  Not so with Pakistan.  It used to be part of India.  Before that it had no particular cultural or political identity of its own.  The British granted India independence in the late '40s.  There are thousands of religions in India.  Islam is one of them.  But most Indians are not Muslim, so the religion would have been in the minority in India.

A large percentage of the Muslim population was concentrated in one particular area.  The Muslims in that area decided to revolt.  They succeeded and the area they were able to gain control of eventually became Pakistan.  So Pakistan's original identity was "we're not India".  Unfortunately, things have not improved all that much since.

By the time India succeeded in becoming fully independent the Cold War was running hot and heavy.  Everybody was supposed to pick a side.  Countries joined the U.S. or the Russian camp.  India decided to opt for "none of the above".  They would form a third "non aligned" political bloc.  Rightly or wrongly, this was widely interpreted in the U.S. and Europe as an anti-U.S. move.  This created an opportunity for Pakistan.

They said "we'll join with the U.S. and Europe if you are willing to pay a big enough bribe in the form of foreign aid".  This would have the effect of poking a stick in India's eye, not a bad thing from the Pakistani perspective.  But mostly it meant that a lot of money would be flowing Pakistan's way.  Because the U.S. bit.  They paid Pakistan handsomely for the right to "count Pakistan in the ranks of anti-Communist countries".

This had a perverse impact on Pakistan.  The foreign aid meant meant that Pakistan was never forced to create a viable and robust domestic economy.  They are an economic basket case to this day.  It also provided a big opportunity for power hungry bureaucrats.

It gave them access to very large amounts of money and arms that were effectively outside the control of elected Pakistani government officials.  The bureaucrats soon leveraged this arrangement to their advantage.  They ultimately became the masters rather than the servants of those elected officials.

The two bureaucrats that were the most successful at doing this were the head of the military and head of the intelligence service.  The generous amounts of military aid lavished on Pakistan resulted in the military having a great deal of autonomy.  They could often dictate terms to the civilian government rather than the other way around.

Until the money to fund the Afghan resistance started flowing in, most of the outside money ended up going to the military.  But this new and very large pot of "resistance" money went straight to the ISI, the Pakistani Inter-Service Intelligence agency.  This arrangement gave the ISI the same kind of autonomy the military had long enjoyed.  It wasn't long before they made use of it. 

As part of the deal to fund the resistance the U.S. had made a promise.  As soon as the Russians were gone the U.S. would be gone too.  The U.S. kept its promise.  It did make an attempt to exert influence with the the Afghan government that got stood up after the war.

The mechanism that was chosen was to provide a generous amount of foreign aid.  But the U.S. congress decided it was having none of it.  It wanted a clean and complete break so the money was never appropriated.

That left a power vacuum in Afghanistan.  The ISI decided that it would be nice to make Afghanistan a vassal state to Pakistan.  Did this initiative come from the elected officials in the civilian government?  No!  The ISI did not even feel the need to get their blessing before proceeding.

Afghanistan was a poor country with a small population.  Even though Pakistan was no great shakes as an economic power, they towered over Afghanistan, both in terms of population, and in terms of economic power.  Once all of the great powers had exited the stage, by now the Brits had neither the interest nor the wherewithal to act, Pakistan's meager capabilities were sufficient to the task.

And Pakistan had not confined itself to blackmailing just the U.S.  They were an equal opportunity blackmailer.  China was too poor at the time to fork over much cash.  But they could and did provide military technology.  They also provided the assistance necessary for Pakistan to develop a nuclear weapon of its own.

The ISI knew all of the players in Afghanistan from their time running the smuggling end of the successful effort to oust the Russians.  They took advantage of that knowledge when they decided to take control of Afghanistan.  Their tool of choice was the Taliban.  Another short digression.

About a century ago the Saud family in Saudi Arabia did a deal as part of their strategy for getting and keeping control of the government.  They made the radical Wahhabi sect of Islam the official religion in Saudi Arabia.  As part of the deal, Wahhabi religious leaders got and kept control of the country's school system.  That's bad.

Here's what's worse.  Lots of rich Saudis like to indulge in various western vices.  In order to keep on the good side of the Wahhabis they give generously.  One of the ways this giving manifests itself is in the funding of Madrassas in countries like Pakistan.  This is all done in the name of "serving the needs of the local Muslim population".

A Madrasa is more than just a mosque.  It also often includes a school.  These schools provide a basic education.  But every student is required to attend religion classes.  In the Madrasas funded by rich Saudis every class, whether it is ostensibly about religion or not, is taught from the Wahhabi perspective.  The price of getting an education is becoming radicalized.

Many Saudi funded Madrasas were built in Pakistan.  There the civilian government was weak and corrupt.  So, it should come as no surprise that government run schools were poorly run.  They often lacked the resources necessary to provide a good education.

On top of everything else there were not enough state schools to educate all of Pakistan's large population of children.  This forced many parents to chose between a Saudi funded Madrasa and leaving their children illiterate.  It's not surprisingly that many chose the Madrasa.

It should come as no surprise at this point that the Taliban hewed to a way of thinking that was close to the Wahhabi one.  One thing these Madrasas did a good job of was turning out religious zealots.  Religious zealots are not good for much.  But one thing they are good for is soldiering.  They do what they are told and the do it the way they are told to do it.

The ISI initiative to use the Taliban to take effective control of Afghanistan quickly started bearing fruit.  This alarmed some in the west.  But, after all, it was Afghanistan, a piece of desert on the other side of the world that no one wanted.  What could possibly go wrong for anyone other than the Afghans?  And who cared what happened to the Afghans?

And none of this mattered until Osama bin Laden took up residence.  And even that didn't matter until he launched a successful operation to pull off 9/11.  The result was, of course, what was originally called "The War in Afghanistan" or "The Afghan War".  And, at the beginning, that was an accurate title.

But that particular War has been going on for almost 20 years.  If it had just been about Afghanistan and the Afghan people it would have been over 18 or so years ago.  The initial phase only took a few months.  It resulted in an overwhelming victory for the forces supported the the U.S.  Whatever their other shortcomings, the Afghan people are not fans of the Taliban.  If it were up to them they would be long gone and would stay gone.

Unfortunately, it has never been up to the Afghan people.  It has been up to the ISI.  And that's why I think the War is misnamed.  It it the ISI who are the key players.  They have neither the interests of the U.S. nor the interests of the Afghans at heart.  But they have the capability to maintain a powerful and effective force within Afghanistan in the form of the Taliban.  For their own reasons they chosen to do so.

The U.S. has tried a couple of times to escape the vice the ISI has put us in.  The attempts have failed.  The ISI has used the same tactic every time.  They hold U.S. troops hostage.  They have engineered things so that supplies must come through Pakistan.  And that means they have to go through the ISI chokepoint.  As long as there are U.S. troops in Afghanistan the ISI tactic will continue to work.

I have listened carefully to what all the talking heads have had to say in light of President Biden's announcement that the U.S. military (and our NATO allies) will be out of Afghanistan by September 11, the twentieth anniversary of 9/11.  I have trouble taking anything they have to say seriously because they never mention the ISI and what they are likely to do.

When the War started roughly twenty years ago the U.S. was able to get supplies and men into the country through several different countries.  More than a decade ago the ISI and the Pakistanis managed to put a stop to that.  They found ways to convince those other countries to stop cooperating.

Since then they have successfully blocked U.S. efforts to create alternative routes.  Pakistan has been successfully playing the blackmail game for more than 60 years.  They do not make amateur mistakes like giving their victim an easy out.

The ISI has been the principal beneficiary of the ISI War.  But the elected government in Pakistan has also benefitted.  That's one reason they have not tried to rein the ISI in.  As long as we have troops in Afghanistan we are forced to spend vast sums in Pakistan.  Some of it is in the form of foreign aid.  Some of it is in the form of fees and service charges.

This has the effect of making the U.S. pay for both sides of the War.  We pay directly to the government and various other entities in Afghanistan.  But we also pour lots of money into Pakistan.  Some of that goes to fund the ISI.  And the ISI funds the Taliban.

It also goes to fund Taliban safe havens in Pakistan.  If you want to understand just how "not a real country" Pakistan is, then take a gander at the "autonomous territories".  Large parts of territory that is labeled "Pakistan" on maps is not actually controlled or administered by the Pakistani government.  The Taliban has been in compete control of portions of these "autonomous territories" for many years now.

Once all of the U.S. troops are out of Afghanistan then the lever Pakistan has been using to extract vast sums of money out of the U.S. diminishes considerably.  The same is true of the NATO and allied troops who will be leaving at the same time.

Pakistan will be able to continue the blackmail game.  There are still lots of countries that think sending some money their way is a good investment.  So the money spigot will not be shut off.  But hopefully the rate of flow will be reduced considerably.

Then there is Afghanistan and the Afghan people.  I have some sympathy for them.  But only some.  Government corruption is rampant.  Given all of the money and equipment we have provided, Afghanistan should now have a top notch military.

Afghanis make legendary fighters so it's not a shortage of the right kind of people.  And have made sure that they don't lack for equipment and training.  So, that's not the problem.  Instead, it's that a lot of people in power in Afghanistan have been focused on personal enrichment rather than what's good for their country.

The U.S. largess has made that kind of behavior possible.  I presume we will still be sending large quantities of money their way.  But they are now on their own when it comes to fighting and other on-the-ground activities.  And if things go wrong, as everybody expects them to do, then the money spigot may get mostly or entirely turned off.

And let's say that the Taliban win and gain total control of the country.  What then?  Then they become the interlopers.  Once the current corrupt government is out of the way then the fighting prowess of Afghans will likely be turned in the direction of the Taliban.

Pakistan has spent decades ignoring the border between the two countries.  The U.S. has felt that it had to respect the border anyhow.  Will future Afghan "freedom fighters" also feel that they can't violate Pakistani sovereignty, especially when it comes to the sovereignty of the "autonomous territories"?  Maybe yes.  Maybe no.

I don't know what is going to happen.  But I do know that the gridlock that has prevailed for the last fifteen years is likely to get shattered.  What will happen will largely depend on the Afghans.  And that's as it should be.  After all, it's their country.

Friday, April 30, 2021

The Plastic Problem

 All of us are aware that disposing of plastic is a big problem.  We are bombarded by stories of plastic ending up here and there, basically in all the wrong places.  It ends up littering streets.  It can be found in parks, rivers, the ocean, everywhere.  We have "The Great Pacific Garbage Patch".  We have critters, cute and otherwise, getting tangled up in it.  The list goes on and on.

The problem is that the stuff is just too convenient.  A few years ago cosmetic makers found out that adding "microbeads" of plastic to cosmetics enhanced characteristics consumer like.  The result is microbeads everywhere.

Clamshell containers for fast food and disposable tableware have made a comeback as a result of COVID.  COVID also caused single use plastic bags to reappear in grocery stores for a while.  This is in spite of the fact that they were outlawed a few years ago.

Plastic.  We love it.  We hate it.  We love to hate it.

Various efforts have been made to ban plastic in a few narrow situations.  These have seen some success.   But all of these efforts together represent a tiny fraction of all the plastic that gets used.  Not surprisingly, the number of tons of plastic produced continues to go up every year.

Various efforts have been made to push recycling.  I commend them.  But they too are a niche solution.  The reason is thermodynamics.

There are three laws of thermodynamics.  I'm not going to even bother to list them.  They are laws because it is literally impossible to violate them.  And what they say is "we're doomed - doomed".  Why?  Because of a concept I am going to talk about called Entropy.

We all know something about Entropy without knowing we do.  Imagine a bag of black marbles, a bag of white marbles, and a jar.  Pour each bag into the jar.  The result will be a layer of one color, say the back, on top of a layer of the other color, say the white.

Now reach your hand into the jar and stir things up.  The result is that the layers disappear and all the marbles get mixed together.  Now, how do we get back to the previous situation where the marbles are separated into layers.  It turns out that it takes a lot of work, far more work than it took to stir things up in the first place.

Entropy is a precise scientific version of this.  Entropy is the measure of disorder in a system.  The original setup where the marbles were organized into layers was a low disorder configuration.  As a result it had low Entropy.  The later configuration where the marbles were mixed together is a configuration featuring more disorder.  So, it has higher Entropy.

That's the basic idea.  There is a whole branch of science for dealing with all of this.  The Entropy of a system can be calculated.  That means that the difference between the Entropy of one configuration versus another configuration can be calculated.  Not surprisingly, this process is very complicated so I am not going to go into it.

What Entropy does for us is that it allows the laws of Thermodynamics to be restated in terms of Entropy.  And when we do that the result is a single law.  The Entropy of the whole system always increases.

Now it is possible to drive the Entropy of a part of the system down.  But to do so we must drive the Entropy of some other part of the system up.  And, if we add all of the changes in Entropy together, we always find that the grand total increases.

So what's that got to do with plastic?  It means that things like recycling are doomed to failure.  They can be made to work with one or another small part of the system.  But, if you look at the system as a whole, more chaos will be added to the system as a whole than the chaos we are able to remove in this or that small corner.  And, in this context, chaos and garbage are the same thing.

What's garbage?  It's a mish-mash of all the things we don't want anymore.  Generally speaking, when we first get something it is neat and tidy.  When we are ready to get rid of it it is messy.  It's all tangled up.  It's broken.  It's dirty.  The things we start with have low Entropy.  The things we want to get rid of have higher Entropy.  This definitely pertains to plastic.

Take microbeads.  A shampoo maker buys a large container of them from a supplier.  The container is full of microbeads.  They are all the same.  That's how you know that the Entropy of the contents of the container is low.  Now the manufacturer mixes the microbeads with some other ingredients and puts it into a bottle.  Imagine trying to fish all of the microbeads back out at this point.  It is impossible.

But it gets worse.  Someone buys the shampoo and uses it.  Most if it, including the microbeads gets washed down the drain where it gets mixed with a lot of other stuff.  It is now even harder to separate the microbeads out.  But then the bottle, still containing a small amount of shampoo, which contains a still smaller amount of microbeads, gets thrown in the trash.

The trash gets picked up and goes to a landfill.  What's in the landfill?  Lots of different kinds of stuff, almost all of which is not microbeads.  The garbage in a landfill has a very high amount of Entropy.  Extrapolate this analysis to all the other kinds of plastic.

People try to help.  Seattle, the city I live in, ran an experiment many years ago.  They had people separate out the trash they were recycling into paper, glass, and everything else.  This made a lot of sense from a Thermodynamic/Entropy perspective.  But they soon went to a simpler system.

It turns out that it cost a bloody fortune to have special trucks and the other infrastructure that they needed to keep everything separate all along the way.  It was cheaper to go to a single bin and hire people to separate it out at the end.  That's what they have done ever since.

But to be able to recycle stuff it has to be separated out.  Paper has to be separated into several specific types, one of which is cardboard.  Metals have to be separated into copper, aluminum, etc.  The same applies to plastic.

And in all cases if it isn't pretty clean it can't be recycled.  And even if it is clean, lots of kinds of paper or metal or plastic still isn't worth recycling.  It's cheaper to dig more of something up, or pump it out of the ground, or plant and harvest more of it, or whatever.  If the recycled feedstock isn't cheaper than new feedstock it is not going to be used.

We have been recycling for a number of decades now.  There are some successes.  But mostly it is a failure.  There is no general category of material, something like paper,  for which, as a whole, it pays to recycle.  This is definitely true for plastic.

Plastic packaging often features a "recycle" symbol with a "category" number inside.  Lots of people think that the symbol means that that kind of plastic can be recycled in an economically viable manner.  But several categories can not be recycled at all.

And other categories can theoretically be recycled.  But costs are too high to make the process practical.  And recycling is only practical when it comes to clean and pure material.  If the material is dirty or consists of a mix of types of plastics then it can't practically be recycled.

Most of the material that is tossed out is neither clean nor pure.  The typical "blow mold" bottle that pop, and so much else, comes in is pure.  But the bottle cap is made from a different kind of plastic.  The bottle and the cap (including the little ring that is left after you open the bottle) are made up of two different kinds of plastic.  They need to be separated so that they can be processed differently.

And so it goes.  Thermodynamics and Entropy are why recycling have made such a small difference when it comes to garbage in general and plastic in particular.  So what should we do?  I have a solution that I guarantee no one will like.  Burn it.

At this point Global Warming people are reacting in shock and horror.  And I can't blame them.  Burning millions of tons of plastic will add millions of tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.  That will make Global Warming worse.  They are right.  But the problem is even worse than that.

Plastic consists mostly of carbon, oxygen, and hydrogen.  Carbon and hydrogen combine to make water.  Carbon and oxygen combine to make carbon dioxide.  One is harmless, from a Global Warming perspective.  The other is not.    But beyond that there is the "mostly" part.

Plastic contains small amounts of other elements.  Burning plastic creates oxides of nitrogen, chemicals containing chlorine, some of which are quite nasty, and more.  The types and amounts vary with the specific type of plastic.  Something needs to be done about them.

Burning plastic causes all kinds of problems, the most obvious one being the carbon dioxide it produces.  So why consider even doing it?  Remember the adage about the perfect being the enemy of the good.  This is a case of the bad being the enemy of the awful.  Consider what we are doing now.

We can see the harm that throwing away (or pretending to recycle without actually recycling) plastic causes.  A lot of very smart and very talented people have applied themselves to the plastic problem.  They have yet to find a "good" solution that actually works.

Recycling is as close as they have come.  We pretend recycling can solve all, or a large part, of the problem.  But all it can do is make a small positive difference.

So, given my precious discussion of Thermodynamics/Entropy, why do I recommend burning?  Because Thermodynamics/Entropy says that burning can work.  Plastics are energy intensive.  Burning allows that inherent energy to be used to break the complex chemicals in plastic down into simpler chemicals.

A full accounting of the Entropy involved would show that burning plastic results in a big increase in Entropy.  But most of that increase happens somewhere or somewhen else.  Inside the incinerator the Entropy of the materials actually decreases.

It should be obvious by now that we don't want to just pile up a bunch of plastic and toss in a match.  We need high tech incinerators.  They need to be able to safely contain the nasty chemicals that are produced.  We also need to figure out what to do with the carbon dioxide.  I think that both of these problems are solvable.

But once the technical problems are solved burning can be applied to most plastic waste.  Plastics contain a lot of energy in their chemical structure.  So we can combine lots of different kinds of plastics and the incinerator will still work.  And the plastic doesn't have to be very clean.  If the contaminants burn, so much the better.  If they don't then they will just settle out as ash.

Incineration represents a practical high volume solution to plastics.  It doesn't work for all plastics, microbeads in the sewer system, for instance, but it works for lots of plastics.  We do need to develop high tech incinerators and we do need to figure out how to deal with the carbon dioxide.  But I think those are solvable problems.

If burning plastic is an unacceptable solution then there is only one other workable alternatives.  That's landfills.  We can just pile it up and try to ignore it.  That's what we are doing to a great extent now. 

But we will need to greatly expand these landfills, and we need to be honest about what we are up to.  These landfills will be full of nasty stuff.  And they will sit there virtually unchanged for thousands of years.

We also need to heavily subsidize the process.  People do not properly dispose of a lot of stuff already.  They do this because they consider the current system inconvenient or expensive.  That means, if we are going to stick with the landfill route, we need to make it easier and cheaper for people to handle plastic (and lots else) in such a way that it actually does end up in a landfill.

So there really are two practical possibilities:  Landfill and burning.  A landfill just delays the inevitable, perhaps for thousands of years.  So, it is important to keep in mind it's not a fix, it's just a delay.  Burning, if the technical kinks can be worked out, represents a real solution rather than a pretend one.

Sunday, April 18, 2021

Why Science Works

 All the way back in 2011I wrote a post called "What is Science"?  Here's the link:  Sigma 5: What is Science?.  In that post I took a hard look at the same question addressed in a new and very interesting book.  It has a weird title:  The Knowledge Machine.  In it the author, Michael Strevens addresses the same question I took a hack at in that post.

I recently did a post that amounted to a book review of a new book by Bill Gates.  The name of his book is How to Avoid a Climate Disaster, and the post can be found here:  Sigma 5: How to Avoid a Climate Disaster.  In that post I said that the Gates book was hard to summarize because Gates covered so much ground.  That's not a problem with my present effort, taking a look at what Strevens has to say.  His book summarizes nicely.  But let me start with a few words about my 2011 post.

In it I spent some time looking at what Science is and what it isn't.  And it definitely isn't the usual step 1, step 2 business that is the way the Scientific Method is usually presented.  After delving into the subject at some length, I observed that the Scientific Method is actually a popularity contest.

We don't associate popularity contests with serious outcomes.  People often see them as an opportunity to have a little harmless fun.  A few years ago the British Government held a contests to name a research vessel.  They were hoping to end up with something that had a little class and distinction.  But the runaway winner was "Boaty McBoat Face", a result that shouldn't have come as a complete surprise.

Science and the Scientific Method are a serious business.  But that doesn't make the basic method by which Science advances our understanding of the natural world any less of a popularity contest.  Certain scientific theories become broadly accepted while others go out of fashion.  One theory gains in popularity at the expense of the others.  See -- popularity contest.

What makes the popularity contest work for Science is the scoring system.  When evaluating which theories Scientists should get behind and which theories now seem lacking, Scientists ask one seemingly simple question:  Which theory is more likely to be right?  That's a more complicated question than it initially appears.

Strevens comes at the same question I did, why science works, and arrives at the same answer.  He uses different terminology and he dives into the subject in a much more thorough way than I did in my blog post.  Frankly, he knows much more about the subject than I do.

I found what he had to say quite illuminating.  For instance, he asks a question that I hadn't even thought of.  The Scientific Revolution started in about 1600 in Europe.  Why did it start when and where it did?

The reason this book is so easily summarized is that the main points can be concisely listed.  He even stops and does this for me so that I don't have to hunt around to find them.  And that, for the most part, is what I am going to do in this post.  But from a reader's perspective, that leaves out the parts that make the book so fascinating and such a good read.

Strevens dives into a lot of real historical events and a few fictional ones.  I am going to leave almost all of that out of the post.  But he is a good writer who has picked interesting and illuminating events and told their story well.  So, while this post will provide you with the key takeaways, not following up by reading the book will cause you to miss a wonderful experience.  Oh, well.

A subject like this needs a framing device.  It is far easier for readers to follow his logic if there is some way to keep those readers oriented.  He uses a popular framing device, a competition between two opposing individuals or factions.  But he uses it well.  That way he can shorthand a position by naming the champion of that faction.  Enough!  Let's get to it.

Why Science works is a mystery to most, but that doesn't mean people haven't taken a stab at the question before.  For his first conflict he selects two answers that have been proposed and assigns a champion to stand for each.  First, the obvious Choice.  Karl Popper literally invented one of the answers.  He then devoted the rest of his life to championing it.

Popper's key insight is that, while it is never really possible to prove a theory is true, it is always possible to prove that it is false.  Popper opines that the way Science advances is by shooting theories down.  Then, paraphrasing Sherlock Holmes, whatever you are left with must be the truth no matter how unlikely or unreasonable it is.

Choosing a position and a champion to put into opposition to Popper is harder.  He chooses Thomas Kuhn, the author of the hugely influential book The Structure of Scientific Revolutions.  When it came out in 1962, not only did Scientists sit up and take notice, but the general public did too.  This is the book that introduced word "paradigm" and the phrase "paradigm shift" to Scientist and non-Scientist alike.

I read the book back in the day.  The first part, where Kuhn describes what paradigms and paradigm shifts are, made complete sense to me.  My objection was with the second half of the book.  My recollection is that in it Kuhn said, in effect, "all paradigms are created equal".  One paradigm gains favor over another for essentially cultural reasons.  Scientifically, there is no reason to favor one over another.

Strevens has a different take on the second half of Kuhn's book.  This is based in part on Kuhn's later writings and in part on a different interpretation of what Kuhn said in the second half of Structure.  It turns out that for our purposes it doesn't matter who got it right.

What is important is that, if we accept Strevers' position on Kuhn and his thinking, then Kuhn makes a good choice of a person and a faction to put in opposition to Popper.  So, for the purposes of this post I am just going to go along with the Strevens interpretation and say no more.

According to Kuhn, Scientists become so wedded to a paradigm that they literally can't let go of it even in the face of substantial evidence against it.  In other words, they have a very unscientific relationship with paradigms. This sounds bad, but to Kuhn's way of thinking, it turns out to be a good thing.

Why?  Because it makes good things happen.  It causes these "true believer" scientists to push themselves and the the paradigm they believe in as hard as possible.  This forces them to work hard, creatively, and tirelessly to extract the last bit of juice from the paradigm.  This hard work and creativity also causes them discover all if its flaws, no matter how small.

The result is a vast trove of data that can be mined by a new generation of scientists.  This new generation is not yet wedded to any particular paradigm.  Thus, they are free to develop new and better paradigms.  Science advances because each group plays its assigned role well.

The old generation, as a result of its complete devotion to a paradigm, puts in the hard and boring work necessary to generate lots of new data.  All this new data gives the new generation the ammunition it needs to create "new and improved" paradigms.

Strevers calls this conflict between Popper's and Kuhn's approach "The Great Method Debate".  By what method does Science succeed?  Spoiler alert, it is not by way of the Popper method.  Nor is it by way of the Kuhn way.  It is a third way, which I call a popularity contest and which Strevers calls "The Knowledge Machine".  Hence, the title of the book.

By this time Strevers has spent some time poking holes in the Popper Method.  He has also poked holes in the Kuhn Method.  But wait.  There's more.  He now spends time showing that it's not just a scientist here or there.  It's not just a theory here or there.  By objective measures, he argues, Science and Scientists never use the Scientific Method.  In fact, he goes so far as to name an entire chapter "The Essential Subjectivity of Science".

He cites a study that followed a well respected bench scientist and his assistants around for a year.  The study determined that (1) they don't do things the Popper way, (2) they don't do things the Kuhn way, and (3) they often abandon official scientific technique entirely.  Harsh.

But how about this for an "out"?  Maybe over a range of experiments over a period of time maybe all the bad behavior washes our and we end up being left with the good and true stuff.  He demolishes that hope too.  His point is that whatever makes Science work must be extremely powerful to overcome all of these obstacles.

His answer to the question of why Science works in spite of all this is what he calls "the iron rule".  It is an "iron" rule because, unlike what has come before, Scientists don't violate it.  They may do what they shouldn't do and not do what they should do, but they don't violate the iron rule.

So what is it?  It's the scoring system in the popularity contest.  When acting as a judge in a Science popularity contest the Scientist must :

  1. Strive to settle all arguments by empirical testing.
  2. To conduct an empirical test to decide between a pair of hypotheses, perform an experiment or measurement, one of the possible outcomes can be explained by one hypothesis . . . but not by the other.
Notice that no reference is made to who is doing the empirical testing, or what any religion or philosophy has to say on the subject.  Instead of "pistols at dawn", it's "what measurement or experiment will convince all the interested parties that at least one of the hypotheses is wrong"?  The conflict is, in effect, externalized and handed off to a neutral arbiter that all can respect.

The natural world doesn't have a dog in the fight.  It just goes about doing what it does.  If that's convenient, fine.  If that's inconvenient, also fine.  A well designed and well executed experiment sends the natural world a query.  The results of the experiment are the answer.  And its an answer that everyone can respect.

Disagreements are everywhere.  Unfortunately, outside of the world of Science these disagreements too often generate ad hominem attacks.  "X is a bad person so anything X says or does can be ignored".  In Science, X may truly be a bad person.  But that's not important.  What's important is the degree to which he performed an experiment in a way that yields valuable and reliable data.

If it only matters whether X is a good or bad experimenter then the question of whether X is a good or bad person becomes just a distraction.  Why would someone opt for an distraction rather than making a serious attempt to find out what the correct answer is?

When I see an ad hominem attack, and particularly when I see a group whose first impulse is to go with an ad hominem attack, that puts me on my guard  Why go with an ad hominem attack at all?  And especially why start off with an ad hominem attack?  I am inevitably drawn to the conclusion that they are going the ad hominem route because they are sure that they are in the wrong.

Back to the book, which doesn't mention ad hominem attacks.  But it does note that the iron rule is "an etiquette for argument, an agreement on how to disagree".  Scientists get just as committed to their positions as others.  But, because they try to hue to the iron rule, Scientists are much better at being able to "disagree without being disagreeable".

That is why ad hominem attacks are relatively rare in scientific disputes and common elsewhere.  Politics, religion, even philosophy are diminished by the absence of the iron rule or some other method of discouraging ad hominem attacks.

Having established his key idea, the iron rule, Strevers switches to a historical approach.  Where did it come from and how did it develop.  He chooses to start with Sir Francis Bacon.  Bacon did not come up with it, but he set the ball in motion.

Bacon is a name I was familiar with without quite knowing what his contribution to Science was.  The author did a nice job of remedying that deficiency.  Bacon is considered by a lot of people to be the first "Scientist", the first person to champion a process that resembles how Science is now done.  He laid his thinking out in a book he wrote called The New Organon.  (The tile is an homage to a book by Aristotle called Organon).

For explanatory purposes Strevens asks "how does heat flow work".  he then introduces two fictional scientists, Romeo Montague and Juliet Capulet.  They have different approaches.  He then works through how each would proceed to apply Bacon's method.  

Here's Bacon's method:
  1. Assemble all positive instances (supporting evidence) for the theory you are studying.
  2. Assemble all of the negative instances (disconfirming evidence).
  3. Assemble a list of all the things that might influence whatever you are studying.  In the case of heat metals warm more slowly than air.  So the type of material involved matters.
  4. Now, what can possibly explain all of the assembled facts?  Certainly, whatever theories have been advanced qualify.  So apply each theory to everything you have collected in steps 1-3 and see where you are at.
With luck, there will be only one theory left standing at the end.  In the process of applying Bacon's Method the thinking of both Romeo and Juliet should draw closer, should converge.  Even if their thinking doesn't converge completely, their thinking should be much closer at the end of the process than it was at the beginning.  Strevens calls this "Baconian Convergence".

When using the methods traditionally championed by philosophers and religious people there is no reason for the thinking of these two people, or any two people, to converge.  We have a modern term for this phenomenon:  the "Zombie Argument".

Bacon's Method and Baconian Convergence were a big improvement on the previous state of things.    Unfortunately, while Bacon's Method often works, it doesn't always work.  No explanation may work.  Several explanations may work.  And, as a result, Baconian Convergence may not happen.

What Science has retained from Bacon's method is that requirement that all evidence must be examined.  Only a theory which explains all of it is truly successful.  The author then moves on to the Michaelson-Morley experiment.  This is famous for it's negative result.  Something was supposed to happen.  Instead, nothing happened.

What was important about this is the difference between Einstein's Special Theory of Relativity, the theory that explained the Michaelson-Morley result, and the theory that failed, Newtonian mechanics.  That difference was 0.00001 inch. That is a truly tiny difference.  The obvious question is "who cares"?

Strevens' answer is:  Scientists care.  The apparatus Michaelson and Morley used was sensitive enough to accurately measure an amount that small.  Einstein's Special Theory of Relativity also solved the "progression of Mercury" problem.  I'm not going to go into what the problem was, except to note that the amount in dispute was another "who cares?" sized amount.

The author goes into all this so that he can he can name the process of chasing after tiny discrepancies "The Tychonic Principle".  This principle is that "the secrets of the universe lie in minute structures, in nearly indiscernible details, in patterns that only the most sensitive, fragile, and expensive instruments can detect".

The Tychonic Principle has made headlines within the past few days.  The headlines are a result of "the Muon problem".  The "Standard Model" of particle physics predicts exactly how magnetic a Muon is supposed to be.  A recent experiment found them to be more magnetic than they are supposed to be.

How much more magnetic?  2.5 parts per billion.   The tale of how Scientists were able to measure such a tiny discrepancy is truly heroic.  Needless to say, the instrument that made that measurement had to be extremely "sensitive, fragile, and expensive" to succeed.

All this may seem obvious.  But it wasn't to Aristotle, or to anybody else until Europe in the 1600s.  Before then people were capable of making exquisitely accurate measurements.  They were capable of developing brilliant and elegant theories.  What they were unable to do was to put it all together.  They did not develop a method for properly rating which theories were right and which were wrong.

Strevers summarizes what he has so far had to say about the iron principle by saying it consists of:
  1. A notion of explanatory power on which all scientists agree.
  2. A distinction between public scientific argument and private scientific reasoning.
  3. A requirement of objectivity in scientific argument (as opposed to reasoning).
  4. A requirement that scientific argument appeal only to the outcomes of empirical tests (and not to philosophical coherence, theoretical beauty, and so on).
And I find that I have skipped over the "scientific argument" versus "scientific reasoning" business.  This is confusing terminology that is unique to Strevens.  But he is making an important distinction.

There is a channel for the formal communication of Scientific Results.  Historically, this has been a Scientific Journal like the "Proceedings of the Royal Society", first published in 1695.  The channel has expanded somewhat since then to include conference proceedings, video presentations, and the like.

Set against this are more informal communications channels.  This may include popular books, TV appearances, musings with colleagues over a couple of beers, etc.  There communications channels predate the formal one.  Strevers uses the phrase "scientific argument" to apply to the formal and "scientific reasoning" to apply to the latter.  This is confusing terminology.  I am going to stick with the Strevers terms anyhow.

What's really important is not the terminology.  Its that the iron rule applies only to scientific argument, the formal channel.  Scientists are free to use arguments based on religion, philosophy, Tarot Cards, whatever, in their informal scientific reasoning utterances.

So why is the iron rule so important and consequential?  Without it "there . . .  is no timeless, a historical criteria for determining what will count as satisfactory to the understanding".  Translation:  there is no consistent rule for how to prove "this is how the world works".

And this results in the Kuhnian (in my interpretation of what he said) belief that "all paradigms are created equal".  And that blocks the path to progress.  For one thing it causes an inability to get to Baconian Convergence.  The name for this is "explanatory relativism".

The author then moves on too Descartes, the "I think, therefore, I am" guy.  Descartes followed Bacon.  His treaties on the subject was modestly called The World.  In it he opined that Force can only be transmitted by direct physical contact.  His proof was solidly grounded in the philosophy and theology of the day.

When he tackled Gravity he was forced to invent an elaborate set of invisible rotating globes to explain how planetary orbits worked.  Strevens does not discuss it, but Newton devoted a section of Principia to proving that no system of rotating globes would work.  That was necessary in order to clear the ground for his ideas on the subject.

So was Newton just the next generation of explanatory relativism the way Descartes was.  Strevens deals with the question by quoting what Newton wrote in the second edition of his Principia:
I have not . . . been able to deduce . . . the reason for these properties of gravity . . . . It is enough that gravity really exists and acts according to the laws that we have set forth . . .

No philosophy.  No theology.  Just the facts mam.  This was a radical break from the past.  Strevens labels this new kind of explanation a "shallow conception" of the concept of explanation.  It does not try to answer "why".  It is content to just stick with "what".

This move from a deep conception of the world to a shallow one is deeply unnerving.  Put another way, "it's just not natural".  And this "not natural" behavior of Science is the source of the uneasiness that causes so many people to reject it.

This change was necessary if Science was to be freed from explanatory relativism.  As a result, Science is able to hang on to results from millennia ago.  It does not need to abandon an old idea just because a new and improved version comes along.

Scientists study "Newtonian Mechanics" to this day even though it has been supplanted by "Quantum Mechanics" for close to a century.  Old theories are seen as the foundation stones on which new theories are built, not something that must be completely rejected.

But Science is continuously forced to stick with "a scientific theory postulated some causal principles; what it explains is whatever can logically be derived from these principles" and no more.  This plays out every day when it comes to Quantum Mechanics.

Everybody hates Quantum Mechanics including the Scientists who study it and practice it.  It is just too weird.  It's too unnatural.  But it works.  If you perform a calculation in the proper way you get the same answer as you would if you did the equivalent experiment.  But why Quantum Mechanics works and what's going on down there?  No one knows.  No one even has a hint of a clue.

Put another way, "the modern scientific standard for explanation is as empirically demanding as it is philosophically lax".   

Over the following pages Strevens goes on to attribute four "innovations" to the iron rule over subsequent pages.  They are:
  • Shallow Explanation.  The only thing that matters are the results of experiments and observations.  Science is not responsible for any deep explanations.
  • The demand for objectivity.  To the extent possible all subjective elements are to be removed.  This is impossible to achieve in actuality, but it remains the goal.
  • The distinction between "scientific argument" (the contents of Journal articles) and "scientific reasoning" (communications in unofficial channels) must be maintained.
  • Only empirical testing counts.  Show me your experimental results.  If you don't have any, shut up.
He then moves on to the question of why Science in general, and the iron rule in particular, appeared when and where they did.  He first demolishes several naïve suggestions.

Smart people have been present in all eras of history and in all parts of the world.  It was not a lack of intelligence.  Good experimenters were also distributed through time and space.  He notes that Ancient Greece, the Muslim world, the Chinese, and many others, routinely threw up people capable of doing brilliant experimental work.

And there was no great advance in equipment or technique.  He notes that people like Galileo and Brahe were able to able to do high precision work using just the "mark one eyeball" (although he doesn't phrase it that way).  I think his argument about the next part is somewhat muddled.  Here's my cleaned up version.

What kicked things off was Martin Luthor publishing his "95 theses" in 1517.  That threw Europe into intellectual and religious turmoil.   The reaction to the reaction was in full swing in 1620 when Bacon published The New Organon.  The authorities quickly slapped him down.  But their standing as arbiters of truth and morality was already weakening by this point.

Then Newton published the second edition to Principia in 1713.  That was the first appearance of the "it is enough" quotation reproduced above.  Europe was riven in the hundred years that separated Newton from Bacon and the 200 hundred years that separated Newton from Luther.

At the beginning of this two hundred year period Europe was intellectually and culturally one big happy family.  Everybody shared the Roman Catholic religion.  And intellectual discourse took place in Latin, the common language of all educated Europeans of the period.

At the end, people were identifying not as Europeans but as English or French or Swedish.  They were having bloody wars over which of several religious sects was the "true" one.  A single authority that everyone deferred to like the Catholic Church was a thing of the past.

This opened the door for a radical idea like the iron rule.  It took this extended period of intellectual and political chaos to enable it to be seriously considered.  Such a long period of intellectual, religious, and philosophical chaos had not occurred anywhere else or anywhen else.

But there couldn't be too much chaos.  If society broke down completely then the resources that Science demands would also have been absent.  At that time Science was the exclusive domain of "Gentlemen of Leisure".  Such people existed, and existed in sufficient number throughout this entire period of chaos.  They were critical to the necessary maintenance of continuity that permitted the iron rule to be developed and implemented.

Strevens also does not know what to do with the 300 year period from when the second edition of Principia was published and today.  I have some thoughts about that too.  As he notes, it was entirely possible that the iron rule would die out shortly after Newton published the famous quotation.  But it didn't.

I think the reason was that even by the early 1700s the power the iron rule gave to Science was becoming harder and harder to ignore.  And the case got even stronger as time passed.  Britain, saw tremendous success.  Europe and the U.S. saw tremendous success.

By the mid 1800s, a little more than 100 years later, we saw the world divided into the first world (Europe including the U.K, and the U.S.), the third world (most of the world), and a few countries like China somewhere in the middle.  But all of the second world countries like China were in obvious decline relative to Europe.

As that three hundred year period has spooled out we have seen country after country adopt at least the Science and Technology component of the European model.  Peter the Great, Tsar of Russia at the time of Newton, had tremendous Europe envy.  Japan started westernizing in the mid 1800s.  Even China eventually got around to it.  China is now a Science powerhouse.  Even second tier countries like Korea, Vietnam, and many more, have "gone over to the Science side".

In many cases, they haven't completely remodeled their culture and politics.  It turns out that you don't need a democratic system of governance to be good at Science and the benefits it produces.  In short Science has won.

Or has it?  Strevens briefly mentions "Science Wars".  But here too I think he gets it wrong.  Science is under attack.  The attackers are the ones who lost out those hundreds of years ago.  The attackers are primarily interested in returning to "traditional" religious and cultural ways.

Science through the workings of the iron rule was able to replace a "deep" conception of truth with a "shallow" one.  But it was from the deep part that these groups got their power.  So, they argue that we should return to the deep conception.

A deep conception allows faith and philosophy to trump experimental results.  At some level, its a power play.  These groups want back the power that they had before the ascendency of Science.  The fact that its a raw power play makes these groups more rather than less determined.

And they have been joined by a surprising ally, business.  At first glance, business should be the ally of Science.  But business wants to sell stuff to consumers.  They don't want consumers to adopt a Science oriented "show me the data" approach because often the data is missing or worse.  Instead they want to be able to use cultural or philosophical arguments in their ads.

We saw this first with the "Tobacco Wars".  Cigarettes and other tobacco products are not healthy.  They do not make you look more attractive to the opposite sex.  They don't make you more popular or stylish or any of that other stuff.  What they do is make you sick and maybe kill you.  They also make tobacco companies a lot of money.

Tobacco companies found it to their advantage to attack Science in general and tobacco science in particular.  They were successful in fighting a rear guard action for decades.   Other industries noticed.

The Oil industry (pollution), the Gun industry (they kill people), and other industries, have followed the tobacco industry playbook with considerable success.  These companies have a lot of money.  They know how to use marketing techniques to get people to believe nonsense.  They know how to manipulate elected officials.

On the other hand, Scientists are bad at all of this.  They have trained themselves to pay no attention to culture or religion or philosophy.  Science and Scientists look extremely powerful on paper.  And they are if they can deploy the iron rule.  But sadly they look extremely weak when it comes to fighting these real world battles.  That's because the first thing their opponents do is pitch the iron rule over the side.  

Thursday, April 1, 2021

Defund the Police?

I live in Seattle.  It has been one of the hotbeds of "Defund the Police" efforts.  The movement kicked into high gear last Spring and Summer as a result of several high profile incidents where cellphone video showed cops, usually white, killing more or less innocent civilians, usually black.

While other places got more national publicity than Seattle, we got a lot.  There were months of protests.  These often erupted in violence.  A Seattle park was taken over.  A Seattle Police Precinct (the city only has five) was abandoned for several weeks before being reoccupied.  Accusations flew fast and furiously in both directions.  Lots of video got posted.

Seattle City politics are extremely liberal.  So City officials quickly blamed the Cops and famously promised to cut the Police budget in half.  The Police Chief, who was female and black resigned in disgust.  She claimed, rightly, that she was being disrespected and not listened to by all sides.  The Mayor, who was both female and lesbian decided she would not run for re-election.  That left the "defund" side seemingly in complete control.

But the better part of a year has passed since this all blew up in a big way and little progress has been made.  From the start I was of the opinion that major changes needed to be made in how policing should be done.  But I thought taking a chain saw to the SPD (Seattle Police department) budget was a bad idea.  The short answer as to why is that "it's more complicated than that".  Let's dive into some of those complication and do so through the lens of history.

My starting point is the '50s.  It's a point that is seen by many as "the good old days".  Cops were generally held in high regard.  Many "beats" were patrolled by a single Cop.  He was on foot.  His inventory of weapons consisted of a "revolver" pistol and a Billy Club.  He wore no helmet or body armor.  He carried no electronics.

This last point is important.  It meant that most of the time he was out of contact with headquarters.  He was on his own unless and until he could enlist the help of a bystander or get to a "call box".  It consisted of a landline phone that was in a locked box attached to a telephone pole.  The phone was connected directly to the police switchboard.  Some neighborhoods had lots of call boxes.  Some had only a few.

In spite of what we would now consider these shocking deficiencies, Cops did not feel that they were at high risk of being injured or killed.  That was because they were better armed than almost everybody they were likely to encounter.

And this included hardened criminals.  The laws on the books specified much stiffer sentences if you were armed when you committed a crime .  Assault, for instance, became Aggravated Assault if you were found to be "packing heat" when you committed the crime, even if you didn't actually use the gun.  So, most career criminals, and especially those who engaged in nonviolent crimes like burglary, went unarmed.

This rosy picture was misleading in many respects.  The press catered almost exclusively to the white male audience.  Crimes done to minorities received little or no coverage.  The public, at least the part that counted, neither knew nor cared what was going on in "the ghetto", or Chinatown, or any other area where minorities lived and worked.

Crimes against white women were also ignored for the most part.  The "man of the house" was its only important member.  Women's rights with respect to money and many other things were somewhere between limited and nonexistent.  The official line was that crimes against or involving women were a rarity.  The exception was prostitution.  And that wasn't discussed in polite circles.

The man of the house was also the family disciplinarian.  Anything he did to his wife was considered appropriate.  For a long time wife beating, or any other kind of physical abuse, including rape, wasn't even considered a crime.  One way or another, Cops were given a pass with respect to a lot of criminal behavior.

This was coupled with a massive amount of corruption.  At the time the public consumption of alcohol was tightly regulated.  Gambling was strictly prohibited.  Any kind of gay or other "deviant" activity was completely against the law.  Even doing business on Sunday was against the law in Washington State and in many other places.

These were the kinds of laws that "good" people saw as applying mostly to other people.  Sure, it was against the law, but they didn't expect to actually be punished for it.  These laws were on the books so that they could be selectively applied against "bad" people.

Besides, "good" people only occasionally dabbled in prohibited activity.  They might buy something on Sunday, but only in an emergency.  And playing a "friendly game of cards" with some buddies wasn't really gambling, even though money changed hands.  A special occasion might call for hitting an "after hours" spot for a drink.  But it was, after all, a special occasion.  Prostitution was illegal but widely available.  And on and on and on.

A Mayor or Police Chief who cracked down on all of this would soon be out of office.  Bertha K. Landis, Seattle's first female Mayor, was a one term Mayor for exactly this reason.  Instead of making these activities legal, or cracking down on them, the solution chosen was an unwritten "tolerance policy".

A certain amount of illegal behavior would be tolerated.  Officials would look the other way as long as things went smoothly.  If things were getting out of control they would crack down until things cooled back down.  Basically, if illegal behavior wasn't creating embarrassing headlines then it was good.

What was actually happening on the ground was a massive amount of bribery.  If you greased the right palms, and kept your operation out of the news, then everything was fine.  But, of course, this situation encouraged favoritism.  Your fine establishment gets raided and shut down while the establishment of your competitor, who happens to be friends with the right people, is left untouched.

The SPD ran a widespread tolerance/bribery system in the 50s.  But illegal behavior eventually got so blatant that it became harder and harder to ignore.  Favoritism resulted in more and more important people's ox getting gored.  They were eventually able to exert enough pressure that the whole thing collapsed.

It turned out that most of the SPD was on the take.  And it turned out that minorities and other groups of the powerless had been systematically victimized.  They never had access to the inside connections that could look out for their interests.

Seattle was not alone.  Similar systems grew up in cities and towns, big and small, all across the country.  It was just "the way things are done".  And in city after city the system was eventually exposed and taken down.

Some good came of it.  Hypocritical "Blue laws" that kept businesses closed on Sunday, severely constrained the bar and restaurant business, and generally prohibited any behavior frowned upon by "Blue Noses", were eliminated or cut way back.  But it good to remember that the police were at the very center of all of this.

And it is important to remember how police departments came into existence and what was traditionally expected of them.  In the Middle Ages there were no police.  But there famously was a "Sheriff of Nottingham" (and many other places).  But his job was to look out for the interests of the nobility.

The only interest he had in what peasants were up to was when said peasants "robbed from the rich", or otherwise inconvenienced them.  He cared because all of the rich were nobles.  At the time, it was impossible to become rich without first becoming a noble.  He also didn't care what Robin Hood was doing with his ill gotten gains.  All he cared about was the harm he was visiting upon the nobility.

And the fact that it is now often called a "Police Department" rather than a "Sheriff's Department", and that the head of one of these departments is now often referred to as the "Chief of Police" rather than "Sheriff" makes no difference.  The job is still the same.

Oh, the departments now have expanded responsibilities.  It is no longer just the nobility.   But the job is still to protect the "right" people from the "wrong" people.  And who gets put into each category is not much dependent on individual behavior.  It is more dependent on their connections, appearance, and social standing.  It is a long way from the ideal of "equal protection under the law".

This idea that Cops are supposed to also look out for the interests of the little guy is a recent one.  The first modern Police Department is generally thought to be the Metropolitan Police Department of the City of  London, often referred to as "Scotland Yard", or "The Yard".

The name comes from the fact that you entered the original headquarters building from something called "Great Scotland Yard".  One or another relocation caused a modest name change.  It's headquarters building is now referred to as "New Scotland Yard".

In any case, the original Metropolitan Police started out mostly doing what Sheriffs and their minions had done in other parts of the country.  They protected the rich and powerful from everybody else.

But power in the English system of governance shifted over time.  It moved in fits and starts from the King to Parliament.  And with that shift came a shift in focus by government at all levels from keeping the King and his close associates happy to keeping a much broader segment of the public happy.

As a result, the Metropolitan Police have gradually shifted their focus.  We see in the Sherlock Holmes yarns, written from the 1880s to the 1920s an interest by Scotland Yard in protecting more average people.  But the focus is still heavily weighted toward the rich, powerful, and well connected.  Holmes and almost all of his clients fit into that category.  Remember, for instance, that Holms' older brother Mycroft is a high government official.

With the American Revolution we saw in the U.S. an emphasis on "all men".  But, in the beginning "all men" meant all white men of sufficient wealth and stature to own property.  And in the beginning only a few large cities had police departments.

Police departments have since become ubiquitous.  Even small towns often now have a "one Cop" police department.  (However, it has become more and more common for small towns to contract with the County Sheriff's Department for police services.)

All this progress and modernization has still left police departments feeling not that their mission is to see to the needs of one and all, but instead to see to protecting the privileged from lesser folks.  This plays out most obviously when it comes to drugs.

And, speaking of drugs, where did all this "War on Drugs" business come from?  There was no such thing as an illegal drug in the U.S. until about 1900.  Before that you could use Heroin as an active ingredient in your "medicine".  Famously, Coca Cola is called what it is because its original formulation contained Cocaine.  But that all slowly started to change.

At the turn of the twentieth century the country woke up to the fact that it had a serious drug problem.  Large numbers of good upstanding people had gotten hooked.  They had innocently started using one or other of the many medicines that contained Heroin, either straight, or in its "polite" version, Laudanum.  The inclusion of a healthy dose of narcotic was good for putting a smile on your face and pep in your step.

It took a while to figure out that these drugs were highly addictive.  Over time it was noticed that they dulled people's senses and interfered with their ability to carry on normally.  And withdrawal was a slow and painful process.  As the evidence built it became apparent that something had to be done.

What had to be done was obvious.  Step one was to outlaw these drugs.  The FDA (Food and Drug Administration) was put in place with a mandate to segregate drugs into "good" and "bad" categories.  This in turn, led to "ethical" drug companies, ones that followed the FDA rules.  Addictive drugs like Heroin and Laudanum would be put into the "bad" category.

Going forward, the FDA would mandate a testing and certification program.  Drugs that passed would be put into the "good" category.  There have been and continue to be problems with testing.  Some bad drugs get through and some good drugs seem to never be able to make it through the approval process.  Another big problem was the issue of what constituted a "drug"?

The FDA eventually settled on the following definition.  "A drug is something that is advertised as having medicinal properties".  If you say that your product is good for you but doesn't cure any specific ailment, you get a pass.  The "natural products" industry makes heavy use of this loophole.  They find ways to infer that their product cures what ails you without actually saying so.

Another problem had to do with what to do with old drugs that were already in widespread use.  Many weren't obviously dangerous or addictive.  The problem was never really solved.  Lots of older drugs were simply "grandfathered in" regardless of whether they should have been or not.

Step two was to get people cleaned up.  The first step was pretty easy.  The second step took a couple of decades.  Most people were eventually able to very slowly wean themselves off these drugs.  The rest eventually died.

Anyhow, by 1933 all of this had been sorted out.  Generally speaking the U.S. no longer had a drug problem.  But one specific government official did have sort of a drug problem.

He was the bureaucrat in charge of the large and prestigious department that was tasked with chasing after illegal alcohol.  With the repeal of Prohibition it looked like he, and all the many people who worked for him, were out of a job.

This particular bureaucrat found a solution to his problem and we have been living with the consequences ever since.  Alcohol is a drug.  Are their any other drugs, particularly illegal drugs, that he can repurpose his agency to chase after?  Well, there are a few.  The big three were and are Heroin, Cocaine, and Marijuana.

The problem with Heroin is that it is low volume.  Once it had been declared illegal, and most of the the addicts had been weaned off of it, there were few users left to go after.  Cocaine was probably more popular.  But again, there were relatively few users.  That left Marijuana.   Here there was at least the potential for a large user population.

Now, even back then, these drugs had been around for long enough that people knew how dangerous they were or weren't.  Pot (easier to get the spelling right) was roughly as dangerous as cigarettes.  Heroin was truly dangerous as it as easy to get addicted to and, once established, the habit was hard to break.  Cocaine was somewhere in between. but closer to Pot than to Heroin.

Desperate times call for desperate measures.  Sure, the actual number of regular users of all illegal drugs was small, but reality didn't count.  Only perceptions counted.  So, various PR initiatives were undertaken.  The most famous one was the creation of the movie "Reefer Madness".  It's ridiculous to anyone who knows anything about the subject.  But very few people did back then.

And it worked.  The bureaucrat kept his job.  His department was downsized but it was still substantial.  And he soldiered along quietly in the trenches for many decades.  The "these drugs are really dangerous" campaign continued.  The people who knew better either couldn't or wouldn't mount a serious counter-offensive.  Frankly, at this point most people paid no attention.

Then the '60s came along.  The Civil Rights movement had been making a lot of noise for roughly two decades.  The antiwar movement geared up to oppose the Vietnam War.  By the late '60s both of these movements were ubiquitous.  And both movements caused a lot of people, particularly young people with a few bucks in their pockets, to doubt the honesty and judgement of the establishment.

And if the establishment was wrong about Civil Rights, and they were.  And if the establishment was wrong about the Vietnam War, and they were.  Then maybe they were also wrong about drugs.  It quickly became blindingly obvious that, particularly where Pot was concerned, they were completely wrong.

All of a sudden, lots of kids were smoking lots of Pot.  They also experimented with Cocaine, Heroin, LSD, and a number of other drugs.  Many of these other drugs fell out of favor after a few years.  The bitter personal experience of large numbers of people demonstrated that they really were dangerous.  But both Pot and Cocaine have endured because the same large scale, real world experience demonstrated that they were about as dangerous as nicotine and alcohol.

Now, all of a sudden, if you are going to do something about illegal drugs you actually do need a large bureaucracy.  And you need more Cops, bigger budgets for Police Departments, more judges and courts, and way more prisons.  That meant that there is money to be made and power to be accumulated.  All of a sudden there was a powerful constituency lobbying in favor of continuing and expanding the War on Drugs.

Police departments were happy to go along for the ride.  And they were happy to fall back into their old "selective enforcement" ways.  Minorities can't afford to be big recreational drug consumers.  They don't have the money.  The people who do are suburban whites, particularly suburban white men.

Minorities did see recreational drugs as a way to make some money.  Being a retail drug seller paid well.  Mostly they sold to white kids from the burbs.  But Cops mostly arrested the black street corner dealers and gave their white customers a pass.  BTW, they had long used the same approach with prostitution.  Arrest the hooker, often a woman of color, and give her white customer a pass.

With the expansion of the drug business another thing happened.  Back in the day when the drug market was small the usual mobs and gangs controlled the illegal drug trade.  To see what I mean check out a 1971 movie called The French Connection.  It involves the usual gang of mobsters using a luxury car in an elaborate scheme to try to smuggle what now looks like a laughably small (just over 100 Kilos) amount of Heroin into the country from France.

It turns out that it was early days at that point.  The "recreational" drug business has since grown and grown and grown.  Soon, cartels from Central and South America pushed traditional gangs and mobs out and took over.  American mobsters lived in American communities.  Whatever restraints traditional mobsters might have felt themselves bound by did not apply to these people.

For one thing, they hailed from countries that had been the victims of CIA meddling, bad behavior by American companies bent on exploiting the locals, and a host of other sins.  They had no sympathy for any "gringo", whether they be a customer or a member of the establishment.  This most obviously manifested itself in an escalation in violence.

As I noted above, Cops had felt safe armed with a revolver and a Billy Club.  And there was nothing fancy about either.  A Billy Club is basically a child sized baseball bat made of a hard wood.  The standard police revolver was capable of firing five or six shots, depending on the model.  And one less if you kept the chamber under the hammer empty for safety.  It also required a slow, complicated process to reload.

But these weapons had proved sufficient to the task for decades.  The new drug gangs quickly upped the ante.  For instance, they imported MAC-10 hand-held machine guns.  All of a sudden Cops went from being comfortably ahead in the arms race to being far behind.  Changes and upgrades were quickly rolled out.  And the arms race between Cops and everyone else continues to this day.

Meanwhile, in a seemingly unrelated development, the U.S. military had decided that it needed to make a change.  The standard long gun in use by U.S. soldiers in the Korean War was called the M-14.  Soldiers were issues M-14s in the early days of the Vietnam war.  But it was soon replaced by the M-16.  The M-14 had been a perfectly good weapon.  But for the Korean War the Russians had gotten sneaky.

The M-14 used a standard "NATO round" type of ammunition.  The Russians adapted their AK-47 so that it normally used a specific type of Russian ammunition.  But, in a pinch, it could also use a NATO round.   So, soldiers equipped with Russian AK-47s could use either Russian ammunition or American ammunition.  Soldiers equipped with American M-14s could only use American ammunition.  That was a problem that needed fixing.

The "fix" was an entirely new gun, the M-16.  The U.S. military decided that, as long as they were going to change the type of ammunition, they would look at everything.  The result was a miracle of design and engineering.  But the goal of all this design and engineering was a machine that is good at killing people, in a pinch, a lot of people.  After all, that's what soldiers do.  They kill other soldiers, sometimes lots of them.

They didn't just change the size of the ammunition.  They changed a lot of other things too.  But let's start with the ammunition.  They went with a "223" round.  Theoretically, that's only slightly bigger than the not all that deadly "22" round.  Compared to the alternatives ("38"s or "9 mm"s, for instance) "22"s are not not very dangerous.

Dangerousness is a combination of how heavy the round is (heavier is better) and how fast it is traveling (the higher the "muzzle velocity", the better).  A "22 short" is light and produces a low muzzle velocity.  A "22 long" is a little heavier and produces a slightly higher muzzle velocity.

Even though the "223" ammunition was only a little greater in diameter than a "22" it was much longer and heavier.  It was also packed with a lot more powder so its muzzle velocity was far higher than a "22", short or long.  Together, these changes result is far more "stopping power" than can be found with "22" ammunition.

The M-16 is also a "rifled" gun.  There are groves on the inside of the barrel that cause the bullet to spin.  This spin causes it to fly straighter.  Along with everything else, the M-16 is a very accurate gun.

But wait.  There's more.  M-16 ammunition is designed to tumble when it hits something.  If the "something" is a human body then this causes lots of stuff to get broken and torn up.  Even if it doesn't kill, it is very effective at maiming people.

All these things are good in a weapon for use by soldiers confronting other soldiers.  Both killing and maiming are effective ways to put soldiers out of action.  There are other features that the M-16 possesses, all designed to make it a very effective people killer.  But I am going to skip them.

Colt, the company that made the M-16 (and later the very similar M-4 that is what the U.S. military currently uses) was not allowed to sell the M-16 to civilians.  After all, it was a military weapon designed to do military things.  Other than target shooting, it literally had no civilian use.

But a buck is a buck, so Colt started selling something called the AR-15.  They had to disable the "full automatic" feature, and make some other small changes.  But the AR-15 is 98% an M-16.  In fact, various people came up with kits for converting an AR-15 into an M-16.  It only involved swapping a couple of parts.  The rest of the AR-15 was literally the same as an M-16.

These kits never became popular.  But in the end it didn't matter.  An unmodified AR-15 (and the hundreds of  models that are essentially the same) is extremely good at killing and maiming people.  This is no surprise.  Millions of dollars were spent designing the most dangerous weapon imaginable.

They are also incredibly easy to use.  No great amount of skill or any extensive training is required.  Various perpetrators have managed to kill and maim lots of people over spans of time measured in minutes.  They had little or no training in the use of the weapon nor any demonstrated skill or previous familiarity with firearms.  It was literally just a matter of "point, spray, reload, repeat".

Why this matters is that in subsequent decades the chances of police being confronted with a heavily armed opponent keeps shooting up and up.  One reason is that you can now buy an AR-15 in any gun shop.  So lots and lots of people have bought one and far too many people have bought several.  That means that the lethality of the weaponry police now routinely encounter defies sanity.

It started with the drug cartels and their employees and associates.  But it has now literally spread to all segments of society.  As a result, Cops have replaced their revolvers with "automatics".  These are semiautomatic pistols that are capable of a much higher rate of fire.  They are also capable of firing many more rounds before reloading is required.  Finally, reloading is much quicker, a matter of a couple of seconds.

They also often wear "tactical vests", clothing that provides substantial protection when an officer is shot at.  They are also now usually carrying a "rover", a portable radio that is tied in with Police Dispatch.  And, as a result of a lot of agitation by the public, they usually carry a "body camera".  (Making sure it is turned on when it should be is still a problem.)

The foot beat is mostly a thing of the past.  Patrol cars usually contain a shotgun and an M-16 or M-4 in addition to the automatic Cops now carry.  Police departments of any size now have a SWAT team.  These units are even more heavily armed and often have access to armored vehicles.

There used to be a large difference between how a soldier was armed and how a Cop was armed.  That difference is now quite small.  Police departments have become highly militarized.

To summarize, police have historically had the mission of protecting the rich and powerful from everybody else.  That is still true, but to a lesser extent.  But public expectations have leapt ahead.  Most people expect the police to serve everyone equally.  Most people have never considered what the traditional role of the police has been, so they are shocked when police actions are out of line with their expectations.

This is on the police.  They have been dishonest about what there mission has been for a long time.  In Cop show after Cop show, we are led to believe that, as the LAPD motto has it, Cops are there to "Protect and Serve".  The "everybody" is implicit.

Police departments, and especially the LAPD, have profited, both in prestige and in the size of their budgets, from the image almost always found in movies and TV shows.  In this and other ways they do what they can to obscure the fact that "some people are more equal than others".

There are some exceptions. Far too many police departments in the South, and some police departments elsewhere, sometimes let it be known that they are there to protect white people from black people.  But even here they are usually (but not always) subtle and indirect about it.

The other main point is that police departments have been militarized to an astounding degree.  This militarization is at odds with the "community policing" model that police departments claim that they follow.  Robocop and Officer Friendly can not coexist effectively.

All this has resulted in an "us versus them" mentality permeating many police departments.  This transition has been a long time in the making.  In the '80s there was a very popular Cop show called Hill Street Blues.  It pioneered what is now a staple of Cop shows, the morning briefing.  In Hill Street the briefing officer ended his briefing by saying "let's be careful out there".

That sounds pretty harmless.  But it is indicative of a shift from Cops viewing their job as "going into harms way to prevent harm from befalling the public" to "our top priority is keeping Cops safe".  As an example, by the time the show ended several years later, the line had changed to "let's go out and do it to them before they do it to us".

Unfortunately, this change in mindset has played out over and over in the real world.  Time after time a Cop who has shot and killed someone he shouldn't have says "I was in fear of my life because I thought he had a weapon".  In one case the "weapon" was a cellphone.  In another case the "weapon" was a ball point pen.  In many cases the victim had no weapon at all.

There is a particular set of circumstances where I find this especially galling.  Thanks to a TV show called Mythbusters I know about the "Weaver Stance".  We are all familiar with it from innumerable Cop shows but Mythbusters is where I learned its name.  All Cops are trained how, where, and when to use the Weaver Stance.  Many a Cop who has shot some innocent used the Weaver Stance.

What's the big deal?  Like the design of the M-16 the Weaver Stance is designed to get the job done.  The "job" here is to allow the Cop to be able to hit what he is shooting at quickly and accurately.

The feet are spread out roughly perpendicular to the line of fire.  That provides a solid base.  Both hands are on the gun which is held at arms length in front of the Cop's face.  This does two things.

It makes it easier to aim accurately.  It also helps reduce "pull", the propensity automatics have to be pulled in one direction or another when fired.  The gun must be re-aimed after each shot.  The more "pull", the longer it takes to fire off a follow up shot accurately.

Part of the training associated with the Weaver Stance is to make sure the gun is ready to fire.  The gun is "cocked" so that it can fire with a simple pull of the trigger.  If the gun has a "safety", it has been disabled.  And, of course, the gun is aimed at the target.  A Cop set up in the Weaver Stance can quickly and accurately get off several shots.

The person the Cop is aiming at is not in the Weaver Stance.  Frequently, his "weapon" is concealed in a pocket or behind his body.  The gun, if there is a gun, may not be cocked.  The safety may or may not be off.  Finally, the gun, again assuming there is a gun, is not pointed at the Cop.

Cops train extensively in simulators to make "shoot - don't shoot" decisions.  Apparently they are NOT trained to use the Weaver Stance to its fullest advantage.  Cops should know that they can fire instantly.  And they can hit what they aim at.  That means they have the time they need to determine if the person they are using the Weaver Stance against is a real threat or not. They don't have to guess.

Let's say the Cop is in the Weaver Stance, which he should be if he is in a threatening situation.  For whatever reason he decides that someone is a threat because he "could go for his gun at any second".  He suspects the person has a gun but doesn't know for sure.  The Weaver Stance affords him the time to confirm or disconfirm his suspicion.

The suspect can't shoot the Cop without showing his gun.  He must also aim it at the Cop.  Both take time.  The Weaver Stance gives the Cop enough is time to determine whether the person has malicious intent or not before the Cop needs to start shooting.

In the movies and on TV it may take many shots to put the bad guy down.  In the real world one wound, or even a near miss, quickly causes a person to lose interest in shooting anyone.  And even if multiple shots are required, the Weaver Stance enables the Cop to quickly get off multiple accurately aimed shots.

A Cop employing the Weaver Stance does not have to make a snap decision based on incomplete information.  Yet we see Cop after Cop shooting someone from the Weaver Stance who is not pointing a gun at the Cop.  Worse than that, we see a lot of times when Cops shoot someone in the back.  The Cop is in no danger at that point.  Yet, they always say "I was in danger when I shot".  This is either bad training or a disregard for training.

And that leads me to the conclusion that Cops are afraid.  Not all Cops and not all the time.  But too many Cops and too much of the time.  Part of this is justified.  We have lots of nuts running around who are armed to the teeth.  Under the right circumstances they will shoot Cops.  But it is not the "armed to the teeth" people who tend to get shot and killed by Cops.  In fact, in many cases these are the people who are taken into custody without incident.

But, starting with Hill Street Blues and continuing to the present, Cop shows present scenario after scenario where the only way a Cop can stay alive is to go in with guns blazing.  Police training reinforces this message.  The training tells them that, "a Cop who is too trusting is a Cop who will soon be dead".

Also, many police departments recruit from the ranks of active duty military.  They particularly go after people who have spent time being deployed in environments where a lot of people are out to get them.  But, even if a recruit has not had any front line deployments, or doesn't even have a military background, they will be flunked out if they are insufficiently aggressive.

Now let me turn to an entirely different aspect of the problem.  We expect Cops to handle many situations for which they are ill suited.  One of the most dangerous situations for Cops is Domestic Violence beefs.  It is not uncommon to find the battered wife turning on Cops when they go to arrest her abusive husband.  Cops didn't used to be expected to deal with these situations.

Most big city police departments used to have a drunk squad.  These have been disbanded for the most part and replaced with nothing.  The same is true of mental health.  Washing State used to have an extensive network of mental hospitals.  My Grandmother was institutionalized twice.  But this was back in the '50s.  This system has been reduced to a shadow of its former self.

Mental health issues are now supposed to be handled within the "community".  But there are few if any resources within the community, so the problem gets foisted off on the Cops.  It's a bad fit.

It is now common to see a Cop stationed in a school.  This is in response to the several mass shooting events that have taken place at schools.  Cops in schools is another bad fit.  The list goes on.  It may not be obvious but there is a pattern here.

Society has a problem.  In some cases it has stood up a dedicated institution to handle it.  Think drunk squads and mental institutions.  In other situations, it has not.  Think domestic violence.  But then along comes a budget crunch.  As a way to save money the institution is downsized.  Or it is never funded in the first place, again for budgetary reasons.  What to do?

The problem is still there so something needs to be done.  Often the solution is to give the problem to the police department and let them deal with it.  Is the department given extra funds?  Of course not.  These is a budget crunch on.

So the mental health system is downsized.  This results in crazy people wandering around.  This results in calls for Cops do do something.  Cops are the wrong solution to this particular problem.  They are the wrong solution in all but the most extreme situations when it comes to domestic violence.  These are problems police departments never wanted responsibility for.

They were happy to assume responsibility for "bad" drugs.  That seemed like both a straight forward "law and order" problem, and an opportunity for bigger budgets, more staff, and cool toys.  But they were always ill suited to deal with the issue.

Then there are political demonstrations.  Some of these are a good fit for Cops.  It is essentially a "traffic control" problem.  That's something that Cops know how to do and can do well.  But other demonstrations are a poor fit.  There are two ways that demonstrations can go badly wrong.

In the first case, the demonstration may be one where the Cops and the demonstrators are on opposite sides.  The obvious example of this is when the issue at hand is police brutality.  But there are other issues that incline the police to be more aggressive then the situation justifies.  

A confounding factor is press coverage.  A peaceful protest, no matter how big it is, tends to get short shrift by the press.  There is no "news value" (code for violence) so the coverage is minimal or nonexistent.  Protesters know that.  This encourages some protesters to misbehave, sometimes badly, in an effort to stimulate a response in an effort to generate press coverage.

The other way they go wrong is when people who have no interest in the issue at hand take advantage of the situation.  There has been a well established and well organized group of anarchists operating out of Oregon for decades.  They came up to Seattle in 1999 for the WTO protests.

At the time the Seattle Police brass were willing to be accommodating when it came to peaceful protests.  The anarchists took full advantage by smashing windows and otherwise making sure that the protests were anything but peaceful.  They used the peaceful protesters as camouflage.

Things played out exactly like the anarchists hoped.  The message the peaceful protesters were trying to get over was completely drowned out.  The Seattle Police were made to look like fools.  First, they under-reacted.  Then they over-reacted.  Everybody lost except the anarchists.  They managed to make trouble and not get caught.

And there has been an anarchist component to every major protest in Seattle since.  There certainly was one in the protests we saw last year.  But by now, everybody is thin skinned.

Protesters see police misbehavior at every turn.  Cops see misbehavior by protesters at every turn.  The result is too much misbehavior on both sides.  Protesters have behaved badly.  Cops have behaved badly.  There is plenty of cellphone video to support both sets of accusations.

And then there's this.  Police operate under a doctrine called "Qualified Immunity".  This is, in effect, the "00" designation that James Bond operated under.  he had a "license to kill".  Qualified Immunity effectively gives Cops a license to kill.

Qualified Immunity is not the same everywhere.  And it is a complicated and convoluted combination of laws, regulations, procedures, and language included in the labor contract negotiated between police unions and cities.  The details are complex but but they don't matter.

The effect pretty much everywhere is that it is almost impossible to convict a Cop of a crime if his actions were "in the line of duty".  In fact, it is somewhere between extremely difficult and a practical impossibility to fire, demote, or even discipline a Cop in such a situation.

One final observation on the War on Drugs.  There has been massive attention paid to the War on Drugs, both by the press and my the makers of movies and TV shows.  Until very recently we were told that the bad guys were drug lords, typically Central Americans.  For the last couple of decades this has been seriously misleading.

It turns out that recently our big problem with addictive drugs has come from something called Oxycontin.  Most "Oxy" came from an American drug company called Purdue Pharma.  Until recently, it was run by the Sackler family.  The number of people addicted to Oxy far outnumbered those addicted to Heroin or other "illegal" drugs.

Purdue Pharma was and still is considered a legitimate company.  A large percentage of their product was sold through legitimate channels.  People got their Oxy by taking a prescription to their neighborhood pharmacy.  Most doctors tried to be responsible prescribing Oxy.  But a number of doctors were willing to run "prescription factories".

The would literally write a prescription for pretty much anyone.  And the prescription would cover large quantities of Oxy.  With one of these "scrips" anyone could go to his neighborhood drugstore and walk out with large quantities of Oxy.  But wait, there's more.  (Somehow, there always is.)

The large volume of "legitimate" sales this produced were not enough.  So Sackler family members actively participated in various schemes that enabled a large percentage of their production to be diverted into illegitimate channels.  (They did, however, always get paid for the diverted drugs.)  That more than doubled the already high sales of Oxy.

During prohibition speakeasys were easy to find.  If you didn't know where the speakeasy was you couldn't go there.  In spite of this they never got closed down as long as they paid protection money to the Cops.

In a similar manner this entire Oxy operation was hiding in plain sight.  Doctors who wrote high volumes of prescriptions were not hard to find.  The diversion of Oxy into illegitimate channels was not hidden very deeply.  Then and now, any serious investigation could have, and eventually did, uncover all of this.

But the Sackler family was a generous donor to political and charitable causes.  And they operated a "legitimate" pharmaceutical company with annual reports, FDA inspections, and all of the usual folderol.  They couldn't be doing anything wrong, could they?

They could.  But law enforcement had no interest in going after them.  Instead they concentrated on "those horrible illegal drug dealers".  The fact that the "illegal" drug dealers were small beer when it came to addictive drugs mattered not at all.

So that's the problem.  What's the solution?  Several things need to happen.

In general, we need to deescalate and demilitarize policing.  This involves moving closer to the ideal of police moving completely away from their role as the protector of the entitled against the rest.  They need to see their role as serving and protecting everyone.  They need to either hassle everyone, black and white, rich and poor, when it comes to drugs or whatever, or then need to hassle no one.  Here are recommendations in a few specific areas.

Drugs.

Drugs are a problem.  But they are not the kind of problem Cops can solve.  The first thing to understand is that "illegal drugs" are a much smaller problem than most people think.  Pot and Cocaine need to be completely legalized.  Between the two, they have historically constituted more than 90% of the "drug problem".

Various countries have experimented with legalizing Heroin.  It turns out that most of the societal harm caused by Heroin is caused by addicts doing crime to support their habits.  If you give people safe and legal access to Heroin, that aspect of the problem goes away.  And it turns out that the percentage of the population that gets hooked on Heroin does not go up.

And that leads to a blanket recommendation.  Decriminalize all drugs.  That won't get rid of the drug problem.  Nicotine and alcohol cause serious problems.  We tried making alcohol illegal and that made things worse rather than better.  We now use approaches that don't involve Cops and guns.  If we move to an approach that is health centered we can better deal with the problems caused by them, and Pot, and Cocaine, and the rest, including Oxy.

Militarization.

Along with getting Cops out of the "War on Drugs" business, we need to get them out of the whole "War" thing entirely.  They are not supposed to be soldiers.  They are supposed to be "peace officers".  They need to see that as their mission.

Cops also tend to see some groups as "good guys" whether they actually are or not.   They also see other groups as "bad guys" whether they actually are or not.  Categorizing someone as a "good guy" or a "bad guy" needs to be based on behavior and not preconceptions.  The key group for making this change is the senior management of police departments.

Cops wearing military style gear is another problem.  But one easy step that would be helpful is to end the program where the Department of Defense provides police departments with large amounts of "surplus" military equipment, much of which is not actually surplus.

Another thing that is technically feasible but is a big political lift is to make major changes to Qualified Immunity.  Police Officers need to have their "00" status revoked.  They need to be subjected to reasonable standards of behavior and only be afforded a reasonable degree of protection from the consequences of their actions.

Failing to adhere to reasonable standards of behavior should dealt with appropriately.  Minor breaches should have small consequences.  Major breeches should result in major consequences.  And both police management and society as a whole should be able to proceed without having to jump through unreasonable hoops or meet unreasonable standards of proof.  This particularly true if the violation results in someone getting injured seriously or dying.  Over time, this would encourage Cops to act less like soldiers and more like peace officers.

Guns.

One reason Cops are afraid so much of the time is that there are so many guns are floating around.  And many of these guns are what amounts to military equipment.  AR-15 "assault weapons" fall into this category.  If it were up to me I would ban them and confiscate them.  But politics makes that impossible.

But a step that would work well would be to tax all guns.  The lower the rate of fire, the lower the tax.  Historic weapons like "flint lock" muskets have a rate of fire of around one shot per minute.  The tax rate would be low.  Revolvers, bolt action long guns, lever action guns, and the like that are hard to reload quickly. would be taxed at a higher rate.  The rate for unrifled semiautomatic pistols would be higher.  Any rifled gun that is magazine loaded would be taxed at a very high rate.  Assault rifles would fall into this last category.

Money

Now, everything but this last proposal has not been about money.  But "Defund the Police" is all about the money.  So, let's talk money.

I believe in reducing the what the SPD and other police departments are responsible for.  But that means there needs to be one or more other agencies that can be stood up or bulked up to take up the slack.

And those agencies will need adequate funding.  The current thinking of the "Defund the Police" people is that so much "fat" can be painlessly cut from the SPD budget that they can easily fund those alternative agencies.   That is fantasy.

There are savings that can be imposed on police budgets, but they are modest.  Seattle, for instance, took the "911" operator function away from the SPD.  Did that reduce the budget of the SPD?  Yes, by a modest amount.  But the budget of another City agency got increased by the same amount.  So the net savings the City realized was zero.

And before you ask, it turns out that the SPD doesn't spend that much on all those military toys.  Cutting them out will save some money.  But the amount is tiny.

Other functions, mental health, family crisis intervention, school security, drugs, drunks, homelessness, and the others, should be removed from the remit of the SPD.  But they are functions the City is doing poorly.  And pulling most of these functions out of the police department will, at best, only result in a modest amount of cost savings.

Remember that when these responsibilities were assigned to the SPD in the first place the department's budget was not increased.  That's one reason that they got done so badly by the Cops.  (Another reason was that Cops are ill suited to perform those functions.)

In every case, the City needs to spend more, not less.  They just need to spend the money in another agency, not in the SPD.  The City needs to stand up and adequately fund agencies to take on these responsibilities.  Done right, that will cost a lot of money.

The City can stand up an umbrella Public Safety Department.  Police and Fire fit nicely here.  The 911 service already handles both police and fire calls.  It can easily be reconfigured to route calls to additional agencies.

These new agencies can be placed under the Public Safety umbrella or not.  So can the 911 service.  The only important thing is keep them out of the chain of command of the SPD.  Remember, we don't want them done the Cop way.  We want them to be done a better way.

The "Defund the Police" people have been operating under a convenient fantasy, the fantasy that money for all this can be found in the SPD's budget.  It can't.  But the fantasy has allowed them to avoid making hard decisions.

Instead of wrestling with how to find the necessary additional funds they have squabbled interminably about how to hack away at the budget of the SPD.  So far all they have managed to do is damage the ability of the SPD to do what everybody agrees they should still be doing.

The staffing level of the SPD was considered low before all this started.  It is now even lower.  That has resulted in response times for 911 calls getting even worse than they used to be.  Crime continues to happen.  In fact, crime rates have gone up.  Angry citizens and business owners are told "what did you expect" when they complain to SPD leadership.

All this results in support increasing for the police and decreasing for the "Defund the Police" people.  But the shift has yet to be pronounced enough to cause policy positions to change.

It's a mess.  Basing policy decisions on fantasies works no better for liberals than it does for conservatives.  Unfortunately, all I see at the moment is more unproductive bickering.  Hopefully, it won't be too long before the bickering is replaced by sensible ideas that have a real chance improving the situation.